Betfair | Golf betting: make the Australian Swing pay by following the course experts

Golf betting: make the Australian Swing pay by following the course experts

Trio of home stars have the form to lock in a profit over coming events down under...

The Omega World Cup may be the most prestigious golf tournament of the week, but my attention will be primarily focussed on the Mastercard Masters from Melbourne. Though this is only the second running of the annual Masters event at Huntingdale as a co-sanctioned European Tour fixture, it has a long, celebrated history under various sponsors as one leg of the Australian 'triple-crown'. I look forward to these three events each year - the others are the forthcoming Australian Open and PGA Championship - as much as any besides the Majors.

My reasoning is straightforward. Few courses and events, particularly Huntingdale and the Masters, offer such consistent form-trends and reliable betting strategies. Each year, the top ten is packed with the same predictable faces, largely dominated by the market leaders. Two main explanations for this spring to mind. Firstly, Australia boasts some truly world-class golf courses that provide the kind of thorough test of a player's long game we're used to seeing in only a small number of top events. Huntingdale and several other top Australian courses often produce playing conditions that resemble a weekend at either the British or US Open. The skills required are not dissimilar. At Huntingdale, firm and fast-running fairways are heavily bunkered, and large, fast, undulating greens emphasise quality approach play. Any waywardness from tee to green is heavily punished, with the inevitable consequence being separation on the leaderboard as only those in peak form survive in contention after what can be a brutal test.

This trend is strongly accentuated by the relative lack of strength in depth of the Australasian Tour. Besides around 30 players this week, the rest are barely competitive at Challenge Tour level. Very few outside the top-16 make any sort of betting appeal, and of those 16 quite a few have poor course records. Moreover, this year's field is the weakest in memory. The two leading Australian golfers according to world rankings, Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy, are both absent this year, as are would-be strong contenders Nick O'Hern and Nathan Green who are representing their country in the World Cup. Previous fields here have usually included at least one world-class international player. Justin Rose won last year, as did Colin Montgomerie back in 2001, while Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia have performed well here. Nobody of that magnitude is around this time to challenge the main home contenders.

Considering then that hitting these fast greens in regulation is rarely of greater importance, its no surprise to see the tremendous course records of Peter Lonard, Richard Green and Peter O'Malley. These three players are at the core of my betting strategies this week across a variety of win and place markets. It's unlikely it will be easier at any stage this year to make a more confident stats-based tip than Lonard to make the top ten at around 3.0. Such a bet would have won in all seven Masters at Huntingdale this century, and in nine of the last 11 years. Twice a course winner amongst that lot, Lonard can usually be relied upon to produce his best golf of the year in these forthcoming events. He's made the top ten an outstanding 14 times from his last 18 tournaments in Australia.

Whereas I'll be backing Lonard, who has proved to be a resolute finisher on numerous occasions, in the outright market as well as for the places, Green and O'Malley are preferred in just the latter top-5 and top ten markets. Green has a 2007 Austrian Open win to his name, but not for the first time looked very flaky in the heat of the Sunday battle on that occasion. O'Malley is also notorious for final-day problems - particularly on the greens. Despite their reluctance to win, both are extremely straight drivers who unsurprisingly have prospered in this event many times previously.

Left-hander Green won in 2004 and was runner-up last year, also finishing 5th in 2002. These stats don't reflect odds of around 5.6 to again make the top-5. Similarly in the top ten market, though his overall record cannot quite match Lonard's, six top tens from Green's last 11 Australian starts surely suggest his odds should be considerably less than 3.0.

As for POM, he's never won at Huntingdale but does boast a very consistent course record including six top-10s over the last 11 years. Having played well for three rounds in a much stronger field at Valderrama last time out, he looks in fair form, suggesting odds of around 4.2 for another top-10 finish represents cracking value.