Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Tiger's in Australia on a grand, old course, the Race to Dubai is entering a crucial phase and several members of the PGA Tour will be playing for their careers as the Fall Series comes to a crescendo. Paul Krishnamurty is wondering when he's going to sleep on a chocka-block week of golfing action

"In my view, the best betting value this week lies in backing a trio of Aussies across the place markets. These sandbelt courses always seem to separate the best from the rest, and whatever happens to Tiger, the leaderboard is bound to be full of familiar names. The likes of Aaron Baddeley, John Senden and Rod Pampling - all of whom have plenty of top class form in the States - should enjoy a significant advantage in terms of local knowledge."

Doubtless, many readers will scoff at the question posed above. Surely, the best week of the year would be the British Open, or the Masters, or in alternative years the Ryder Cup? Obviously, I enjoy those great tournaments as much as the next punter, but there is some reason behind my apparent madness.

Quite simply, the next few days bring wall-to-wall top-class golf. So much so that I'm struggling to work out when any sleep will be available. Luckily, it seems I should be able to get my head down for a few hours from roughly 10am UK time from Thursday onwards.

Most significantly, the two main tours are reaching their conclusion. The Children's Network Miracle Classic is the final event of the PGA Tour Fall Series, and therefore the last chance for players to ensure they are in the top-125 on the money list, thus retaining full playing privileges for 2009. As the last event, the Viking Classic, was abandoned, the analysis of the chasing pack that I laid out before that event remains relevant, as does my earlier 'Five to follow during the Fall Series'.

It's also last chance saloon on the European Tour for those either fighting for a place in next week's Dubai World Championship finale or just to retain their playing rights. Uniquely, there are two world-class events that count towards the Race to Dubai.

The main protagonists line up for the Hong Kong Open, with the two race leaders, Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood chasing a win that would ensure a very strong pole position going into the Dubai bonanza. Both were bang in contention over the weekend in Shanghai, and can take great heart from the roll-call of previous winners in Hong Kong. In the eight years this event has been co-sanctioned, seven have gone to Europeans, six of whom were world-class.

For me though, the highlight of the week comes from Australia, and Tiger Woods' appearance in the JBWere Masters. I've been complaining for years about the lack of top-class overseas visitors to the main Australian events, which are always played on superb, old-fashioned golf courses. Kingston Heath, a firm, fast course which challenges every aspect of a player's game, is no exception. Hopefully, Tiger's decision might encourage others and start a trend.

On the formbook, [2.6] favourite Tiger looks a class apart, but there were plenty of question marks over his weekend performance. Any inaccuracy will be severely penalised around Kingston Heath, so a repeat of Sunday's sloppy showing could leave the door open for a host of top-class home stars.

In my view, the best betting value this week lies in backing a trio of Aussies across the place markets. These sandbelt courses always seem to separate the best from the rest, and whatever happens to Tiger, the leaderboard is bound to be full of familiar names. The likes of Aaron Baddeley, John Senden and Rod Pampling - all of whom have plenty of top class form in the States - should enjoy a significant advantage in terms of local knowledge.

Furthermore, their place records in Australia are outstanding. Baddeley, who won the Australian Open on this course as a teenager, has made the top-10 on eight of his last 11 attempts in his homeland, including all of the last five. Pampling's last 12 home starts have yielded eight top-10 finishes and nothing worse than 30th.

2006 Australian Open champion Senden's home record is good, if not quite as impressive, with five top-10s from his last 11 starts. However, Senden can also boast some fine recent form, as he made the top-20 on his last four PGA Tour starts and finished second to Tiger back in August at the Buick Open.

It's tempting to back all three in the outright market, but this does carry the significant risk that Tiger runs away with the tournament. Whereas instead, perhaps partly due to Tiger's presence in the field, they look outstanding value in the place markets. Current odds for the top-5 market range between [6.0] for Senden and [8.0] for Pampling. Better still, all three can be backed between [2.8] and [3.0] to make the top-10. As those previous home records prove, anyone repeatedly backing these characters to make the top-10 on home soil in recent years would have easily made a profit.

Tags: Aaron Baddeley, Children's Network Miracle Classic, Dubai World Championship, Hong Kong Open, JBWere Masters, John Senden, Kingston Heath, PGA Tour Fall Series, Rod Pampling, Tiger Woods