Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 October 2007 /

Pro punter Paul Krishnamurty outlines his plans for profiting from Ernie's World Match Play assault

Whenever a sporting event is subject to a pre-determined draw, the key to successful trading is to rigorously scrutinise that draw in an attempt to identify the strongest and weakest sections. Punters used to betting in sports where knockout tournaments are the norm, such as snooker and tennis, will take this golden rule for granted, but it represents quite a departure from the tactics required most weeks in golf betting. In fact, this week's HSBC World Match Play is one of only two such knockout events in the golfing calendar.

Forming the odds in a regular strokeplay event is a fairly subjective affair. However much we debate the merits of each player and their odds, the market will ultimately be driven by supply and demand, with punters determining each price. This week though, there is less scope for opinion as the 'correct' odds for each player should reflect the same odds as the four-fold accumulator he would need to win to emerge as champion on Sunday. And as we have a good idea how the draw will pan out, it is possible to broadly predict those odds in advance.

Consider the case of Ernie Els. For several reasons, Ernie is all the rage with punters this week. The Big Easy starts clear favourite on the basis of his six previous World Match Play titles at this course. Not only does he have the best form in the book, but he always admits to feeling especially confident and relaxed playing at Wentworth, where he has a house overlooking the course. At present, Ernie is trading at around 5.1, equating to an average price in his four matches of around 1.5. For me though this assessment is the bare minimum, and presents us with an opportunity to lay him in the outright market whilst simultaneously backing him game-by-game in the hope of achieving a bigger accumulative price.

That average of 1.5 is correct for his first round match against Colin Montgomerie, a tough opener given Monty's fine Wentworth record. Should he win that game, its hard to envisage Els starting at much shorter than 1.5 in any of the later rounds. His quarter-final opponent will be either Niclas Fasth or Andres Romero, against whom I would estimate his odds at 1.55.

From there on, whoever he plays will at least have some winning form behind them this week and potentially he could face two tougher matches against Padraig Harrington and then Justin Rose in the final. Should this tough draw come to fruition, I estimate the odds of a match-by-match accumulator to be above 6.0, a full point bigger than his starting price.

So even a simple running accumulator at the start of each match should offer better odds. However, as he will start at short odds-on for each match, in my view better value lies in waiting to see if better odds become available in-running. Remember, these matches are all played over 36 holes. In many or even most matches, the odds will fluctuate dramatically. If, for instance, Monty goes a couple of holes up on Thursday's front-nine, he would probably go favourite and make Els odds-against.

Here then, is the full strategy I intend to follow this week. I've already laid Els at 5.0 for a sum I shall define as 10 points, and I'm looking to re-invest 7 points in the match by match accumulator. So if he fails to win the tournament, I shall make 3 points profit. Ideally I will watch each game live, leaving the decision about which point to back him until the most preferable moment. But to clarify the strategy here, lets say the average price I'm looking to back is 2.5. So if I can back Els at 2.5 against Monty and he progresses to the next round, I would carry forward 17.5 points to stake on the quarter-final match.

If I get matched at that price in each round and Ernie went on to win the tournament, my overall profit would be 226 points minus a small reduction for commission. If he wins after drifting sufficiently in three of the four rounds, I'll make 62 points. If I'm only matched in two, I'd lose 4 points, and if its just the one or none at all I'd be in trouble losing 30 and 40 points respectively.

Of course this betting plan can be amended as the tournament progresses. After each round, I'll re-assess the new outright price plus revised draw, and perhaps set a different in-running target. It may turn out that having drifted twice before reaching the semis, that tough draw may await in which case closing out for a profit might be the most sensible option.

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