Honda Classic Betting: How will this European big-four fare at PGA National?

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Casey knows how to play golf in the US

"In my view, Casey will be one of the men to beat at the forthcoming US Masters, and he could well retain his Houston Open title a week earlier. However, I'm less optimistic about this week's course debut at PGA National, as it seems a course less suited to Casey's power game."

European golf is on a high at the moment so what does Paul Krishnamurty make of this quartet's chances?

With six Europeans in the world's top-ten and an all-English final at the recent WGC Matchplay, it's clear European golf has never been stronger. There is one glaring shortcoming though, insofar as since the beginning of 2009, Europeans have won just three strokeplay titles on the PGA Tour. Ignoring longshot Martin Laird's Fall Series victory, the last strokeplay success for one of our Ryder Cup stars came last May when Henrik Stenson won the Players' Championship.

There will be few better opportunities to correct that statistic than this week's Honda Classic, as the field lacks the world's three leading American players - Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Steve Stricker. So here's a look at the prospects of the four European representatives from the world's top-ten.

Lee Westwood ([21.0])

At no.4, Westwood has never been higher in the rankings, and with nobody able to predict when Tiger will return, the sky really would be the limit if he can maintain the form shown to win last year's inaugural Race to Dubai. In order to reach the pinnacle though, he'll need to win in the States, and that involves ending a losing streak that dates back to the 1998 Freeport-McDermott classic.

To be fair, Westwood has plenty of decent Stateside efforts to his name, including top-3s in a couple of majors and a WGC event over the past two seasons. His schedule has always remained, admirably, Europe-orientated so chances are few and far between. Consequently, he tends to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of course knowledge on rare PGA Tour appearances, and that could prove the case this week at PGA National.

Paul Casey ([20.0])

Casey's efforts at Dove Mountain a fortnight ago suggest he's now fully recovered from the rib injury that curtailed an impressive 2009 campaign. Few - if any - Brits seem more comfortable on the PGA Tour, probably because his wife is American and he has spent much of his adult life there.

In my view, Casey will be one of the men to beat at the forthcoming US Masters, and he could well retain his Houston Open title a week earlier. However, I'm less optimistic about this week's course debut at PGA National, as it seems a course less suited to Casey's power game.

Rory McIlroy ([17.5])

As the market suggests, Rory looks our strongest candidate this week, despite his poor conversion ratio. McIlroy has been working with a mind coach in an attempt to convert his relentless high finishes into some victories. I'm sure that will help, but tend to think it has been less of a mental issue than a putting one.

All of that will be resolved with experience, and in the meantime he has already become remarkably consistent. Having comfortably registered top-10s in seven of his last eight strokeplay events, including five top-5s, Rory has regularly rewarded followers in those two markets. He wasn't beaten far in 13th on this course last year, in what was only his second US start, and another strong challenge looks guaranteed. As those figures suggest, [2.7] to make the top-10 and [5.1] to make the top-5 look solid investments.

Padraig Harrington ([29.0])

How quickly things can change in sport. At the beginning of 2009, with three of the previous six Major titles under his belt, Pod was being widely talked up as a threat to Tiger's No.1 spot. Fourteen months later and he's by far the biggest price among these four Europeans. That's largely down to a winless 2009, but in fairness he went close on numerous occasions during the second half of the year.

As a previous winner of the Honda Classic in 2005, Harrington must come in for consideration. That came at a different venue, but on his sole visit to PGA National in 2007, the Irishman was only beaten by five shots in 13th place.