Betfair | Golf Betting: Look to the States, rather than China, when laying the leader this week

Golf Betting: Look to the States, rather than China, when laying the leader this week

It's the Asian Open and the Byron Nelson Championship on the two big tours this week. Paul Krishnamurty has some intriguing stats if you're playing the odds

Based on anecdotal conversations I've had with punters over the years, golf is often seen as a good sport to be a layer. Understandably so, given the frequent short-priced disasters we've seen in a game where small margins of error can produce dramatic leaderboard and market fluctuations. Several very short odds-on losers earlier in the year added fuel to that argument, and not just from renowned bottlers or inexperienced rookies either. Some of the biggest names in the game - Els, Singh and Mickelson for instance - confirmed that in golf, there really is no such thing as an odds-on certainty.

I doubt many layers have enjoyed the last month though. The latest unlikely final-round leader to comfortably hold off the chasing pack was Damien McGrane in China last Sunday, the Irish journeyman extending a vulnerable three-shot lead into a nine-shot stroll. Thankfully, I was away on Sunday and so managed to avoid laying him, but the combination of previous last-day failures and 13 years without a win on the European Tour certainly left the impression of a man to oppose.

And later on that day Boo Weekley made it five tournaments in a row where the final-round leader has maintained pole position, including unlikely characters such as Johnson Wagner and Gregory Bourdy. Layers have also been frustrated in both the elite strokeplay events so far this season, with Geoff Ogilvy and Trevor Immelman managing to defy market scepticism.

Examination of results over a slightly longer time-frame suggest such runs are just part of the ebb and flow of a season. After 30 tournaments on either the European or PGA Tours, 15 have gone to the leader going into Sunday, and 15 have gone to one of the chasing pack. So rather than get too caught up with either side of that argument, the sensible thing to do is to take each situation on its merits. Obviously, the histories and characteristics of the players concerned are the most important factors. Tiger Woods' front-running abilities are as legendary as Phil Mickelson's flaws in the same department. And irrespective of the result, nobody would have been surprised if a maiden like McGrane or Wagner had bottled it.

It's also crucial to know the nature and trends of each course in this regard. Some tournaments at certain venues regularly produce winners that start the final round well off the pace, others seem to go to the front-runner every year. Tricky pin-positions on courses where birdies are hard to come by make life very difficult for those needing to shoot a low score from the pace, especially if there are only a limited number of potential hazards for the front-runner to negotiate. The two most famous examples are Augusta and St Andrews, both championship courses that rarely produce a final day turnaround. Seventeen of the last 18 Augusta winners started Sunday in the final group, and three of the four St Andrews Open winners over the last 20 years were 54-hole leaders.

A further reason in these two cases is the fact that on both courses, positive and negative scoring occurs on a relatively small number of pivotal holes. Compared, for instance, to volatile Carnoustie. Then again, even following that strategy is not failsafe. There are few courses in the States where I'd be less confident about a front-runner as Harbour Town Links, scene of Weekley's triumph.

So what about the week ahead? Front-running is certainly possible at the Shanghai venue used for the last four Asian Opens. Last year Raphael Jacquelin led after all four rounds, replicating Ernie Els' achievement in 2005. And in the other two years, the turnaround was mainly the consequence of the leader folding badly rather than brilliant catch-up golf. Nobody was surprised when arch-bottler David Lynn blew it in 2006, though Simon Dyson's final-round 76 to lose a six-shot lead was quite a shock.

In the States, the Byron Nelson Championship has been played at Las Colinas since time and memorial, but virtually every tee, green and bunker has been changed since last year. Though it may therefore only have limited reference, the recent history of Las Colinas very much suggests this could be the event for 'lay the leader' merchants to end their barren streak. Luke Donald, Adam Scott, Trevor Immelman and Sean O'Hair have all been turned over at short-odds there in the last three years. You have to go back to 2004 for the last final day leader to emerge triumphant, and even then Sergio Garcia needed a three-way play-off after a memorable night of topsy-turvy trading.