Forget Qatar heroics and swerve the Scott Masters bandwagon

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 January 2008 / 1 Comments

Ignore Australian when he's playing on the biggest stages, says Paul Krishnamurty

Watching Adam Scott's final round in Qatar yesterday, it was easy to see why the 27-year-old Aussie has been touted as a future World No 1 (or at least second to Woods) ever since he was a teenager. Bar a couple of missed short putts, Scott could well have made history with the European Tour's first ever 59. As it was, that superb 61 still broke the course record and issued an early statement of intent for 2008. The market certainly reacted, with Scott matched at low as [25.0] to win April's US Masters before settling in the mid-30s.

Considering that such a victory would not only require beating an invincible looking Tiger but also an enormous improvement on all previous attempts, these are appalling odds. In 27 Major appearances this century, Scott has made the top-20 only four times. This despite 12 worldwide victories in the same timeframe and enough good golf to reach No.4 in the world rankings. The explanation for this failure is unlikely to be psychological, as that impressive strike-rate proves he certainly knows how to win, including on a very big stage for the '5th Major' at Sawgrass. Rather, I believe that Scott's underperformance in the Majors is due to technical reasons.

Coached by Butch Harmon, Scott was almost immediately defined as a 'Tiger-clone' when he first turned professional. There are similarities off the tee but the comparisons really should stop there. The most famous part of Woods' game may be his prodigious power off the tee, but his success is down to a much wider variety of strengths. Tiger dominates the game because he is the best, or one of the very best, in every single department - driving, approach play, scrambling, putting. It is these skills that are most seriously tested in the courses used in major championships, and where any weakness will be magnified and punished.

Majors are never played on target golf courses. And I can't recall a single golf course used in one of the big four championships where scrambling around the greens wasn't a severe test. Coupled with a vulnerability over short putts, it is a glaring weakness in this department that explains Scott's poor majors record. He ranked 179th on the PGA Tour for scrambling in 2007. The only other leading players who rank anywhere outside the top-100 in this department are Retief Goosen, who had a dire year, and Henrik Stenson, who has also suffered in the majors for this same reason.

It also goes some way to explaining Scott's surprising failure to win in his own country to date, where most big events are played on championship courses. Until he improves this area of his game, he'll struggle to win any Major and certainly won't be winning the Masters. Theoretically, Augusta's par-5s should play to his strengths, yet despite this advantage Scott has never got into contention there and has only one decent Masters effort to his name. Even then, when 9th in 2002, conditions were very wet which further suited long hitters and made the greens unusally receptive as opposed to their usual lightning-fast, treacherous selves. Without similar conditions, its very hard to imagine Scott consistently chipping and putting well around those greens.

The only downsides to laying now is the risk that his price could hold or shorten in the meantime. Following the sensible strategy adopted by Tiger, Scott plays a lighter schedule than most. He hasn't opted to stay in the Gulf this week nor return to the PGA Tour. In fact, he's only down to play in five more events before the Augusta showpiece. Two of those are World Golf Championships, and he will hold a big chance as defending champion of the Houston Open. He could very plausibly win again before April, at which point the hype machine will no doubt start saying that this will be the year he finally comes of age in the Majors. Don't fall for it.

Comments (1)

1. Peter | 25 February 2008

   I agree that Scott does not look good enough yet to win the Masters as his putting is still not strong enough and some other parts of his game need improvement. If Adam is going to win a major this year then I think the USPGA will be the one as it is the easiest in my opinion and it will be the only one that I will be backing him in.....also got to hope that Tiger has an off day or two !