Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Don't be fooled by Tiger's domination of the field at the BMW Championship, he hasn't got the FedEx Cup sewn up yet, says Paul Krishnamurty

"Before diving in at [1.38] though, punters would be best advised to examine the small print in the scoring system, as significant changes in this year's format mean that Tiger is far from a certainty."

In the wake of Sunday's eight-shot triumph at Cog Hill, his sixth PGA Tour title of 2009, it's tempting to assume that Tiger Woods is virtually weighed in as this year's Fedex Cup winner. Before diving in at [1.38] though, punters would be best advised to examine the small print in the scoring system, as significant changes in this year's format mean that Tiger is far from a certainty.

With its 'anyone can win' brand, the purpose of the Fedex Cup was always to create an exciting, dramatic finale where numerous candidates still hold a chance of landing the $10M bonus prize going into the last event. However for the first two renewals, the scoring system failed to deliver as Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh coasted home with plenty to spare. Vijay only had to show up at the final play-off event to ensure victory last year.

This year is very different. Previously, the points list accumulated during the regular season was reset before the first of the four play-offs. That meant everybody went into the play-off series with a chance of landing the title and bonus, but winners of the first three events would be sure to hold a massive, potentially unsurpassable advantage by the time the series reached its East Lake finale.

This time, in order to prevent a repeat of these earlier damp squibs, and ensure that the race goes down to the wire, that points reset has been pushed back to now. That means that going into next week's Tour Championship, the Fedex Cup has at last lived up to its hype and anyone really can win.

After the reset, Woods naturally heads the way with 2,500 points, with second placed Steve Stricker on 2,250 and a decreasing number for every player down to 30th and last placed John Senden, who has 210. The points distribution for the Tour Championship is as follows; 2,500 to the winner, 1,500 to the runner-up, 950 for third, 675 for fourth. Again, the returns diminish further until the last placed player, who will receive 205 points. Given the huge prize money up for grabs all the way down the list, everyone has plenty of incentive.

So what does Woods need to do to maintain his lead and land the first prize? In short, to be certain he will need to win the Tour Championship. The reset ensures that if anyone in the top-five of the revised points list wins, they will become Fedex Cup champion. And three of these four principal rivals are all strong candidates in their own right. Steve Stricker has become world no.2, while Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson are in-form major champions. Heath Slocum is also in this group, but would still represent a huge upset.

The serious challenge to Woods goes beyond those four though. If he finishes second at East Lake, only they can win, but any further back and more players come into the mix. If he finishes third, then anyone down to 8th can win, and the further down the leaderboard he finishes, that number increases. If Woods were to finish outside the top-5, then Stricker could become Fedex champion by finishing 2nd at East Lake.

With so many potential scenarios, Woods can hardly be considered a certainty, and [1.38] hardly represents value. After all, he is very beatable at East Lake, irrespective of last week's heroics. In six previous attempts in the Tour Championship at this venue, he's only won once although he has finished 2nd three times.

In my view, only a strong start from Woods can prevent his price from drifting in-running, and a good start from one of the other leading five could transform the market very quickly. My strategy then is to lay now with a view towards capitalising on the trading swings as the weekend progresses.

Tags: East Lake, Fedex Cup, Steve Stricker, Tiger Woods, Tour Championship