Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 August 2008 /

Derided competition could yet capture the imagination of watching public and the game's best young players, says Paul Krishnamurty.

At best, last year's inaugural Fedex Cup play-offs series received a mixed response. The idea of four ultra-competitive tournaments over the space of four weeks, with a $10M dollar first prize at the end of it, sounds good in principle but once it became obvious Tiger would dominate, the events began to smack of overkill. Because of the timing, this last point is still a factor. Whatever the prize money, it can't compare in importance to either of the two Majors we've just seen, nor the Ryder Cup or even the WGC events.

Year two, however, does look much more interesting. With Tiger absent, the idea that 'anyone can win' makes sense, because in theory the format does lend itself to excitement. The top-144 players on the regular PGA Tour money list are left in ahead of this week's opening event, the Barclays Classic, with the top-120 earners moving forward to the Deutsche-Bank Championship. The field is then reduced to 70 for the BMW Championship, before the top-30 fight out the finale at the Tour Championship.

The scoring works as follows: Each of the 144 qualifiers starts with a points total re-set according to their position on the regular tour. So the leader, Kenny Perry starts with 99,500 points, 250 ahead of next best Phil Mickelson, with further small deficits all the way down to Lee Janzen in 144th place with 92,070 points. For the first three play-off events, the winner will be awarded 11,000 points which is again reduced all the way down to the 70th placed player who receives 2,100. And for the decisive Tour Championship, 12,500 will go to the winner, 2,000 to the last-placed player.

So because volatility is built in to the scoring system, literally any of the 144 could still win the Fedex Cup and its career-changing bonus. If last-placed Janzen were to win the first event he could very plausibly take over as Fedex Cup leader. Obviously, the current leaders will take plenty of beating because they are already ahead and are the best in the world, but for now at least anything can happen. If there is a clear advantage, it would be to players already in the top-30, who merely have to hold their place for the first three weeks to guarantee a crack at the final event.

Much will depend on the early results. If one of the current leaders, Perry, Mickelson or man-of-the-moment Padraig Harrington were to win the Barclays, they would inevitably trade very short. But given the wide-open nature of the current golf scene, there's every chance we'll see four different tournament winners and some shocks amongst them.

I don't fancy any of those three. After that amazing early summer run, Perry has lost the plot again in recent weeks. Mickelson is always respected, but seems unlikely to play all four and hasn't been wholly convincing or reliable this season. As for Harrington, he'd stated before the USPGA that he was knackered so I doubt we'll see him fully focused for what remains a secondary goal to him. His game is all about the majors nowadays, and he's rarely performed outside them recently.

In fact the only one of the top-10 that interests me for betting is Anthony Kim. He starts in 5th, (effectively 4th due to Woods' absence), and is young and enthusiastic enough to compete strongly in all four events. Despite disappointments in the two big recent tournaments, I haven't shifted the opinion I expressed here a few weeks ago that Kim is the next big thing in world golf.

Further back in the pack, Adam Scott could make light of his current 24th position with one good week. Outside of the majors, particularly those with very fast greens, Scott has made much progress this year with impressive wins either side of the Atlantic. And encouragingly, he has won on two of the four play-off courses before, TPC Boston and East Lake.

And if you're looking for an outsider, Camilo Villegas could be your man. He has work to do, starting in 42nd place, but played very consistently in these events last year. Villegas seems to thrive on championship golf courses, and just registered his majors personal best at the USPGA. There are few better players yet to win on the PGA Tour, and wouldn't it be just the storybook finish the sponsors need if the Colombian were to break through now when the rewards are greatest?

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