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Fast starter Rose the man for the back-to-lay pack

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Justin Rose is the European punt but Big Phil is Betfair golf expert TQ's leading fancy...

The race to win the Order of Merit enters the home straight this week as the European Tour docks into the picturesque setting of Vilamoura, Portugal. A high-class field will turn out for the inaugural Portugal Masters, in what promises to be an exciting week.

The fight for the Order of Merit crown will hog the headlines, but just as riveting will be the battles of those nervous players scrambling to keep their cards for next year.

Having spent the majority of the season in the US, Justin Rose has done extremely well to be in third place in the Merit table entering the third last event, and quite understandably heads the market.

Justin is having a difficult time getting over the winning line at the moment, and last week's first round exit from the World Match Play won't have done his confidence any good. However, I have no doubt that the first betting strategy of the week is to back him at around 10.5 pre-tournament, safe in the knowledge that you will almost certainly be able to lay him off for a profit at a later point.

He is a phenomenal starter of events and is invariably high on the leaderboard after round one. This is highlighted by his PGA Tour stats, which shows Rose is third on the scoring average for rounds one and two for the whole tour, but is a very poor sixty-first for final round scoring averages.

The only course form to go on for this event is from the 2005 World Cup, where Wales emerged victorious. Unfortunately, terrible weather put paid to the final round of the championship, and Wales were declared winners as they had the lead after the third round. This victory can only bring positive memories for the Welsh duo of Bradley Dredge and Stephen Dodd, and it will pay to have a small saver on both these players. Dodd is in very poor form, but at 200 he is certainly better value than many.

The talk of the European Tour in recent weeks has been the emergence of teen sensation Rory McIlroy. Third and fourth place finishes in the last two weeks means he's already retained his card, and has got people everywhere saying he's the next big thing, even entertaining the possibility of him qualifying for the Ryder Cup team.

Such discussions are premature, but music to the ears of savvy punters. The market has gone mad with overwhelming support for the youngster from Northern Ireland, and he is quite simply too short at 34. To win a title so soon into his professional career is unlikely, and he is a must lay. He is also a must lay at 1.9 in his tournament matchbet with Dredge. Now is the time to take advantage of these unrealistic odds, as after one or two mediocre performances, these sorts of crazy prices will no longer be available.

Unusually, this week's US Tour event is also new on the schedule, and tournament organisers have done well to secure the appearance of crowd favourite Phil Mickelson. This new title may not sound very salubrious, but with a winner's cheque of $900,000 up for grabs, I am sure the eventual champion will be only too delighted to be named inaugural Frys Electronic Open winner. Mickelson is an Arizona State University graduate and has many ties not only to the area, but also to the club that is hosting this event, so you can be sure Lefty will be trying his utmost to please the raucous crowds. His price at 7.4 is slightly shorter than I would like, but still merits a punt, as I fancy come Sunday afternoon he will be adding another win to his already outstanding total of 32 PGA Tour victories.

The fans will be out in their droves to support the events this week and whilst the Portuguese crowds are somewhat reserved you can bet that the army of fans out in the Arizona desert will be as noisy as any you will come across all season. So, whether you like your golf viewing to be thoughtful and quietly appreciative or manic and filled with raucous shouts this week caters for all golf fans. My viewing strategy would be to take the quiet approach and save your solitary 'get in the hole' shout for when Mickelson sinks the winning putt on Sunday afternoon.