Golf Events / Tareq Quiroz / 12 December 2007 /

TQ thinks the layers are being over-generous ahead of the SAA Open...

It is less than two weeks until Christmas and still the big tournaments just keep coming. The select few will be off to California to compete in Tiger's own event, whilst the rest have the choice of events in the southern hemisphere. Either way there is still plenty to play for in the final tournaments of 2007.

The SAA Open is a great event and has attracted a top-class field. Pearl Valley plays host to the event for the first time and, in an unusual step, has been granted the tournament for the next three years. The course is only four-years-old so there is a lot of guesswork in terms of how hard it will play. Early indications are that it will be a fairly stern test of these top players and that the cream will rise to the top.

The Els factor will affect your betting strategy this week so be clinical and don't sit on the fence. Facts are that he threw away a certain win with both poor shots and poor course management. It is unacceptable from any professional player let alone someone of Els' calibre.

But, despite that collapse, my punting brain tells me to ignore it. Els is a bigger price than he should be because of that and its time to fill your boots. Take heed and don't oppose the Big Easy, he is a wounded animal and I am sure he will come out even more determined this week. Get on at 6.2 and you won't regret it.

I can't let that tournament go without advising a wager on the stand out tournament matchbet. Form is temporary but class is permanent is a popular saying in sport, and class is a word that you could definitely apply to Darren Clarke. Last week I mentioned that he was to be followed as he would hit form very soon. He looked in good nick and but for a blip on the back nine of his final round would have finished top-10. He will follow it up this week and will be odds against to beat McIlroy in his matchbet. That is a must bet if ever I saw one.

Over in California, just 16 guys tee it up for the Target Challenge. It is a select field invited by the host, none other than Tiger Woods himself. As you would expect, Tiger has a terrific record in the event with an incredible six top-two finishes in seven attempts. I am tempted by the [2.54] for him to win the event, don't forget that he has been shorter than that to win majors in the past. Sceptics will say that he will be rusty and not on top of him game but there is no real evidence to back that up. Back him as soon as you can as I am sure he will get only get shorter as the event approaches.

With Tiger our outright pick we need to find some value further down the market and my attention is immediately drawn to Mark Calcavecchia. Calc is very much a hot and cold player but in this relaxed atmosphere I fully expect him to shine and at [50.0] he has to be your saver bet this week.

My critics will say that anyone can pick Els and Woods to win but how many people actually do. My advice is don't go looking for alternatives just for the sake of it. After all, the idea is to back the winner!

Woods and Harrington may have walked away with the Player of the Year awards last week but it was Els and Sabbatini who made the headlines. Is there any worse feeling as a golf punter than to see your player sauntering to victory, only to inexplicably blow-up with the title at their mercy? Over the years I have backed plenty and learned my lesson the hard way. Always always lay off. How many of you laid Ernie at [1.01]? And more importantly, how many of you failed to lay off your bet on Ernie as you thought he was certain to win coming up the last? Come on, you can tell me...

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