Dubai Desert Classic Betting: Back the big-four to dominate once again

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Kaymer in action at the Qatar Masters where he finished down the field in 32nd - expect better in Dubai

"Favourite backers, or at least those focusing on the leading handful of contenders, have been in clover. McIlroy's hardly huge odds of around [30.0] were by far the biggest since Mark O'Meara's surprise success in 2004, and when they haven't been winning, the big names have nearly always made the places. Nineteen of the last 26 to reach the top-five here started below [50.0]."

Desert golf form stands up better than on other courses, says Paul Krishnamurty, so get behind young guns Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer this week

Few events, if any, have proved more predictable in recent years than the Dubai Desert Classic, which concludes the 'Gulf Swing' this week. Four of the last six renewals were won by previous major champions, with the other two going to a surefire future major winner in Rory McIlroy, and a member of the world's top-ten in Henrik Stenson.

Favourite backers, or at least those focusing on the leading handful of contenders, have been in clover. McIlroy's hardly huge odds of around [30.0] were by far the biggest since Mark O'Meara's surprise success in 2004, and when they haven't been winning, the big names have nearly always made the places. Nineteen of the last 26 to reach the top-five here started below [50.0].

Two names in particular have thrived at the Emirates, Tiger Woods and Ernie Els, who have four titles and 13 top-fives between them. Happily for the other course specialists in Dubai this week, neither of those superstars are amongst this line-up. That must be particularly good news for McIlroy and Martin Kaymer, who give every impression that they will feature in as many classic finishes over the coming decades as Tiger and Ernie have over the last.

After finishing first and third respectively in the opening Gulf Swing event at Abu Dhabi, Kaymer and McIlroy cemented their names on many short-lists for the Masters. Indeed, should any of the big-names win this week, expect their Augusta odds to shorten markedly. Though the Emirates' greens lack Augusta's complexity, their pace and size go some way to explaining the strong correlation between leaderboards in this event and the Masters, as do the four par-fives.

Kaymer's odds of around [40.0] for the Masters look particularly interesting, but more immediately [12.5] must be taken this week. Now in his fourth full season, the German is fast improving with experience. Whereas even a year ago, his putting whilst in contention could be identified as a weakness, Kaymer's weekend performance on the greens at Abu Dhabi was exemplary. That was his third victory and sixth top-six in his last ten events, despite breaking a foot in the middle of that spell.

For me, that recent run entitles Kaymer to challenge for favouritism in any company now, (Tiger excepted, of course), and even more so at this stage of the schedule. So far in his short career, these target golf courses in the desert have been the ones where he's best prospered. His two previous results in this event were second and fourth, while his record at Abu Dhabi reads even better with two wins and a second place.

Backing McIlroy is slightly more problematic, because the secret is well and truly out and it will be a long time before we see odds like last year's [30.0] again. There is only so much mileage in backing his Masters price of [17.0] to shorten up. Nevertheless, as he nearly always trades shorter in-running and has registered six top-four finishes from his last eight events, Rory must be worth at least a saver here and taking [3.1] in the top-five market would probably make for a lucrative weekly strategy.

An equally sound option for backing these two emerging superstars lies in the 'Big-four versus The Field' market, where they can be backed at [2.9] alongside the last two European money list winners, Robert Karlsson and Lee Westwood. As well as strengthening our hand with their world-class pedigree, both players can boast solid recent form having finishing first and third in Sunday's Qatar Masters. If the history of this event is anything to go by, at least one of these 'big-four' will be fighting out the finish and it would be no surprise to see the entire quartet on the leaderboard.