Childrens Network Classic Betting: Swerve nervous favourites

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 October 2011 /

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Donald has looked somewhat jaded in recent weeks - is a long season catching up with him?

"When a very low target is required, Luke Donald seems to hit a flatspot at some stage and get left behind. That was the case in his last two events, when 11th at the Madrid Masters and ninth at the Dunhill Links."

Luke Donald and Webb Simpson are locked in a duel to top the money list but neither has convinced in the mix recently and nerves could get the better of them once again, says Paul Krishnamurty

Given that the Fall Series principally concerns middle-ranking PGA Tour members, scrambling to retain playing privileges for next season, nobody could have predicted that the final event would attract the two best players of the season.

Yet with the money list title on the line, both world number one Luke Donald and PGA Tour leader Webb Simpson will line-up at this week's Childrens Network Classic. Predictably, punters have steamed into the 'big-two' with Donald trading at [9.4] and Simpson at [11.5]. There are several reasons, however, to think these are two short prices to be swerved.

First, lets take nothing away from their achievements. Few ever considered Donald to be the world's best player beforehand, but his consistency in 2012 has been unrivalled. Luke may yet win both US and European money lists - a feat only Tiger Woods has ever looked capable of. Equally Simpson, winless before this season, has stunned pundits with his progress, and improved faster than anyone in living memory. The problem with both, though, is that whenever they've been presented with a chance to really cement their status, they've flopped.

Donald, for instance, knows full well that nobody will truly recognise him as a worthy world number one until he wins a major. Yet while he's only missed three top-tens in 2011 non-majors, (and no top-20 since his seasonal debut), he barely threatened at the majors. Fourth at the Masters was a good effort but 45th in the US Open and a missed cut at The Open were shocking, considering he was in the form of his life at the time. It was hard to escape the conclusion that he'd bottled it, especially as a poor career win ratio had resulted in that charge being levelled before.

Moreover, I doubt the Disney birdie-fest is ideal for him. Luke tends to fare best when those peerless short-game skills are required to keep his scorecard together on a tough course. Alternatively, when a very low target is required, he seems to hit a flatspot at some stage and get left behind. That was the case in his last two events, when 11th at the Madrid Masters and ninth at the Dunhill Links. Arguably his best performance came when winning the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth with a score of just six under, despite faltering in the two middle rounds. Do that at Disney and Donald will be dead in the water. A score of 20 under par will be the target here.

To be fair, Simpson hasn't been at golf's top table long enough to draw any such clear conclusions, but he too has wobbled on the big stage. When entering the Fedex Cup finale in pole position, the thought of a $10M bonus prize appeared to have a very negative effect. Normally extremely consistent and reliable, Simpson was all over the place until it seemed any chance of the prize was gone, at which stage he put in a late rattle only to come up short.

Last week was another case in point. It's probably harsh to criticise anyone who loses a play-off, and there may be an element of talking through my pocket involved, but the way Webb lost to Ben Crane was extremely disappointing. Having opened with 63 to take the first round lead, the event looked there for the taking. But Simpson failed to hole a single putt over 14 feet, and missed three short ones including on the decisive green. Hardly what one would expect from such a renowned putter.

Finally, irrespective of this pair's shortcomings, this just isn't a tournament where backing short-priced favourites makes sense. The last ten renewals included six big-priced winners while only one favourite, Vijay Singh, delivered. Obviously there is only limited profit to be made from laying both to win the event, although this strikes me as a good way to start building an in-running book. Better value could lie in laying both for the top-five finish market, at [2.88] and [3.5] respectively.

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