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Buick Invitational Betting: US Open 'run-through' offers tremendous trading opportunity on Woods

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Hurry to beat the rush for 'certainty' Tiger ahead of the US Open, says Paul Krishnamurty...

We have a pretty rare scenario this week, with the US Open venue being used for a standard PGA tournament just five months before the big event. The Buick Invitational is played at Torrey Pines, with three of the four rounds played on the South Course, widely expected to be a particularly brutal venue for that always gruelling Major championship. It's also a venue that everybody knows suits Tiger Woods down to the ground, a point shown in his magnificent course record.

As winner in four of the last five years, it's no surprise to see Woods offered at just [2.3] before a ball has been struck in what will be his first event of 2008. And its hard to argue with those odds. Tiger has never started as short as [2.3], but even if you'd taken that lower price every year since the South Course was significantly lengthened and toughened in 2002 you'd still have made over 50% profit. And if you'd backed him in his last six events since July, you'd have collected on five occasions.

Torrey Pines certainly ranks alongside a handful of other courses - Bethpage Black, Pebble Beach, St Andrews, The Grove, Hoylake - where Woods always seems virtually invincible even amongst the most competitive fields. It would surely be asking too much for Woods to ever repeat his amazing 15 shot victory at Pebble Beach in 2000, but I do expect similar runaway victories on at least one of his two trips to Torrey Pines this year.

Layers are right to be taking no chances early on then, but there are counter arguments against a bet at such short odds. The leaderboard at halfway in this event does not fully reflect the effect of the South Course, as everybody plays one of their opening two rounds on the significantly easier North Course, where Tiger's superiority is much less pronounced. Often a few less considered players will get a run going on the easier course on Thursday, so Woods will have to be up with the pace immediately to remain at his very short price.

Indeed, despite dominating the event, Woods has often had to come from well off the pace to win here. Last year, Andrew Buckle traded at very short odds on when holding a big lead over Woods on the final day. In 2006, Tiger was seven shots behind at halfway, and matched at [16.0]. In 2005, he eventually triumphed in an exciting final day four-way shoot out with Donald, Howell and Lehman.

Taking both sides of the argument into consideration, while I will be backing Tiger in-running at some stage if he drifts, a far greater imperative is to get on for the US Open now in anticipation of the inevitable plunge once the market truly factors in the Torrey Pines factor. Should he win impressively again this week, there will be constant references in the media to Tiger's love of the course, and I fully expect the price to have collapsed by the time June arrives. He was matched at [3.2] yesterday for the US Open, and I estimate that will shorten to around [2.5]. Even this shorter prediction is conservative, and assumes that somebody will beat him in the meantime elsewhere. If he carries on in his current vein of winning form through the WGC event in Doral and the Masters, we could be looking at evens.