The Open / Steven Rawlings / 18 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

It's a poor day for The Punter, as Tiger fails to roar and Louis and Casey soar....

After the rash of birdies on Thursday and the drama of the high winds on Friday, Saturday had a more subdued feel to it, or at least it certainly did for me. Maybe it's the lull before the storm and today we'll witness all sorts of fireworks. Let's hope so.

I'd kept my (blind) faith in Tiger Woods but the expected move just never happened. Yet again the putter was cold and his second consecutive 73 was never ever going to be enough to get him in to contention.

All of my bets flopped, with only Phil Mickelson - a country mile behind anyway, breaking par. I'd had one further wager before play started, backing Korean amateur Jin Jeong at [110.0]. He started well enough but as the day wore on his usually fantastic putting deteriorated and he's out of the picture now too.

I was effectively out of the game once Woods and co had messed up and I had three choices. Call it a bad job and leave the event alone, choose between Louis Oosthuizen and Paul Casey and make a short odds play, or pick out a couple of outsiders that may benefit from a stumble from the leaders. I went for the latter.

I dived in on Henrik Stenson at an average of [42.0], when he made a massive birdie putt on the 8th hole, and that looked a great move... A birdie followed at the 9th and when he holed out from the fairway on the par 4 13th hole, he was matched at a low of [6.8]. And I also got Martin Kaymer onside at an average of [18.0], and US Open flop, Dustin Johnson, at [75.0].

They all look like pretty poor value plays now but it's easy with hindsight. I really didn't think Oosthuizen would finish the day as strongly as he did and Paul Casey had looked opposable on the back nine, as he hadn't played it brilliantly over the first two days. As it was he didn't break par yesterday, but I'm still not in what you'd call a strong position. But this is a golf Major so you never know.

It's Oosthuizen's event to lose now and his odds-on quote isn't out of line. He'd started round three with a five shot lead and he ended it with a four shot one - an unlikely scenario after he'd three-putted the first green. But after that he was superb, making some really testing putts. It helped that the wind dropped considerably for the last hour or so but his finish to the day was brilliant, in contrast to Casey's...

The South African holed an absolute bomb on the 16th for birdie and made a simple two putt birdie on the last, whereas Casey made par on every hole on the back nine, missing relatively simple birdie chances on the 14th and 18th.

That was yesterday though, the pressure on Louis will be even more intense today and given he's been known to wobble on many occasions in the past I wouldn't be remotely interested in taking the odds on. I haven't got much value in my plays against the front two but I'm happy to field against them as a late twist in the tale wouldn't surprise in the least.

I'm not in a strong position by any means and if it turns out to be a losing week so be it - it won't detract from my enjoyment. It will be nice to see Oosthuizen win, I think he deserves it, and it would be equally good to see Paul Casey bag a Major. Whatever happens, it's bound to be enjoyable and I'll be back on Monday with my tournament De-Brief.

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