The Open Golf Betting: Trio of American leaders won't last the distance

The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty is unconvinced that any of the current leaders - Tom Watson, Mark Calcavecchia and Steve Marino - are capable of winning this event. Your best bet is to look for the quality players further down the leaderboard, such as Ernie Els....

As we enter 'Moving Day', this year's Open Championship still looks as open as it did before the start. In fact, it's even more so now that Tiger Woods has incredibly missed the cut, with nobody currently trading shorter than [9.0]. Almost anyone left in can still win this Major.

Nine shots separate first and last, but its hard to escape the conclusion that the real figure is a couple of shots lower. For while the trio of Americans heading the leaderboard have an opportunity to set up a strong position for Sunday, if any of them were to win, it would represent a massive shock.

59 year-old Tom Watson would be the most popular winner. Comparisons are already being drawn with Greg Norman's heroic challenge last year, but they don't really stand up in my view because Greg was much younger, fitter and capable of a higher standard. I'll be surprised if Tom even finishes in the top-10 from here. Equally, another former champion in Mark Calcavecchia, remains a rank outsider despite currently holding 3rd place.

Co-leader Steve Marino may seem slightly more plausible than those veterans, but he has never won a professional event before and had never played links golf until last Tuesday. Rather than that leading trio who will probably drop away, the players to catch right now are the bigger names on -3, in particular Retief Goosen, Ross Fisher and Vijay Singh.

Given that conditions are expected to be equally as difficult as yesterday, with strong wind all day and heavy rain in the afternoon, I doubt anyone will get past -6 after the 3rd round. Therefore, anyone who finishes the round under par for the tournament will hold a realistic chance going into Sunday. At least a couple of the 52 players on Even par or worse are bound to shoot a low round earlier in the day to transform their position.

Analysis of the last ten Open weekends proves that anything is still possible. 1999 winner Paul Lawrie started the final day ten shots back, and two years later David Duval started the third round six back. 2002 saw three massive priced outsiders come from the clouds to reach a four-man play-off before Ernie Els saw them off. Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton won the next two, both having traded high all weekend. Finally, Padraig Harrington came from six back on the final day to win in 2007.

Here's my updated trading plan. Yesterday, I advised trades on http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/british-open/british-open-betting-camillo-and-stewart-contender-170709.html Camilo Villegas and Stewart Cink, but I've decided to close these positions out whilst very marginally ahead. They're both decent players quite capable of winning, but no more so than any of the other ten big names currently under par. Doubtless several of those will strengthen their position in round three, but its not easy to pick any one over the other.

In my view, better value lies amongst the much bigger-priced players further back in the pack, so I've picked three outsiders to capitalise on 'Moving Day'. Firstly, I'm adding to my pre-tournament position on Open legend Ernie Els at [65.0] http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/british-open/british-open-betting-dont-rule-out-the-big-easy-ju-140709.html. At +1, Els is still well within striking distance at +1, and will relish the tough conditions more than most.

From a shot nearer the lead, recent winner Nick Dougherty has plenty of trading potential at [110.0]. He played an excellent solid par round in today's harsh conditions, and is clearly hitting the ball right now. As a former Dunhill Links champion, he warrants respect.

Even those players on +2 are still in with a chance, and there are some enormous prices around about the likes of Darren Clarke and Davis Love. As I've already advised Darren pre-tournament at [330.0] http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/british-open/find-me-a-100-winner-open-special-150709.html, there's no point in pressing up but at [470.0], Davis is too big to leave out of my trading plans. Love is less consistent nowadays than the player that went close several times in Opens past, but he retains all his ability. If a few putts start dropping, he could yet make a mockery of those odds.

Selections

Ernie Els @ [65.0]
Nick Dougherty @ [110.0]
Davis Love @ [460.0]