The Open / Steven Rawlings / 21 July 2008 /

He was canny enough to back Harrington during the Irish player's early troubles, but how did The Punter get on overall?

Going into yesterday's final round the big story was Greg Norman, but the fairytale wasn't to have the happy ending many had hoped for. His two shot lead turned into a deficit after only three holes and he was always under the cosh after that.

It was Padraig Harrington who took over from the third and, although he had a dodgy spell when he bogeyed the 7th, 8th and 9th holes, he was extremely impressive after that and in the end ran out a comfortable four shot winner.

There had been a few twists and turns on the way though. For a few minutes it looked like there might be a different fairytale ending when amateur Chris Wood got to within a shot of the lead and he was one of my three 'just in case' bets @ [48.0].

The other two were Anthony Kim @ [15.0] just to cover stakes and Norman @ [30.0] on the 16th hole when he was the only danger left to me. Incidentally Kim was covered fantastically by the BBC, despite having a very definite chance throughout his round he was shown just once all day!

While Pod secured a decent profit, other picks also threatened to deliver the goods.

Ian Poulter, backed @ [34.0], touched odds-on at one point and I confess it was the Englishman I was cheering on. I'm one of those odd people that think his flamboyance is both refreshing and good for the game.

My big outsider Simon Wakefield, backed @ [1000.0], was still level par for the day through five holes but he eventually wilted, quashing my very own fairytale ending.

The big shock for me was undoubtedly KJ Choi. His weekend performance was as surprising as it was disappointing. I would rank Choi second only to Woods in the bottle ranks but if you'd never watched golf before this weekend you'd have marked him down as a terrible choker.

I have to be thankful for the wrist injury scare surrounding Harrington as without it I would never have backed him. I confess I'm not a great fan of his and thought he was extremely fortunate last year. There was no way I would have backed him at around [20.0] before the start but I'm very pleased I didn't spend too long gawping in the gift horse's mouth. The [65.0] after three holes on Thursday after he had played the first three holes with no sign of any pain proved to be as wrong a price as it looked.

It goes without saying my opinion of him has gone up a tad after yesterday. He looked a man at peace with the world afterwards, maybe finally feeling he's achieved what he wanted to achieve and the manner in which he won must have been very satisfying. He talked of the difference between winning one and two majors and seemed to be content with his lot.

In fact at his post-event speech he talked and talked and talked. His speech went on quite a while, I even wondered whether I'd get a mention at one point!

Hats off to him though, Ireland have a true champion they can be rightly proud off.

I'll be back on Wednesday with my picks for next week's eagerly awaited Russian and Canadian Opens.

* * *
Saturday 19th July

I can hardly believe that Greg Norman is leading the Open after three rounds. It's already a most remarkable story but if he happened to win it, well that would go down in golfing folklore forever.

As for my book, well for quite a while yesterday I thought I'd got all angles covered but then shenanigans on the 10th hole, firstly with Antony Kim and Ross Fisher over moving balls on the green and then a ruling dispute with Freddy Jacobson led to a substantial delay on the tee which knocked everyone off their stride.

While all those that suffered the delay were affected to some degree it was Jim Furyk, backed @ [26.0], who dropped six shots in five holes, who suffered the worst. His price after the 9th hole had hit a low of [4.2]; he's now around [60.0].

Choi was a bit disappointing. When presented with a decent birdie chance on the 5th he hit a low of [3.45], but he missed that, double bogeyed the 6th and struggled most of the day after that.

So what now?

It's going to be windy again but the forecast suggests it won't be as bad as yesterday. The forecast also shows that as the day progresses the wind will begin to drop, so the leaders could get the best of it late on. History also favours the leaders; it's usually folly to look for the winner too far down the Open leaderboard on a Sunday morning.

Having already backed Pod [65.0], Choi [9.6] and Simon Wakefield [1000.0] it looks like the one I need to worry about is that shark fellow.

Can he do it? Well yes. Will he? I have my doubts. Almost famous for his ability to pass up a winning chance in his pomp, all logic tells you he'll find today very difficult. I haven't backed him yet but from this position Id be a bit cross if I don't show a profit whoever wins so I'll be ready to back him if I need to.

I'll also have one eye on Antony Kim as well. Of those outside the leading quartet I view him the main danger.

* * *

Friday 18th July

The golfing Gods finally relented slightly for those drawn early/late when the wind dropped enough for some late birdies and even an eagle from Harrington.

It still looks on balance as though yesterday's morning starters have had the advantage. The question is now, what will the weather be like today?

It's never easy to rely too much on forecasts but the most detailed one I can find suggests that the wind will drop slightly late on and it looks like the worst of the weather will be between 11.00am and 4.00pm. If, and it's a huge if, that's right then the leaders may have the best of the weather and that's why I backed KJ Choi as he played the 17th hole @ [9.6].

I had two additional bets yesterday, a small top up on Stephen Ames @ [50.0] and a back of Ian Poulter @ [34.0].

Of my previous bets, the Goose was poor yesterday and for a while my two [1000.0] shots, Wakefield and Slocum grabbed my attention but ultimately fell away. But I'm reasonably happy with the state of my book at present. I now have the first three in the betting comfortably on my side along with the likes of Ames, Poulter and thanks to a great second round rally, Scott Verplank, all waiting in the wings.

I fancy it's going to be very hard for anyone to come from too far back unless the weather is really bad. The one I'm most wary off and will be monitoring closely today is last week's winner McDowell; he's in the form of his life and will be better suited than most to poor conditions.

* * *

Thursday 17th July

I'd almost forgotten what a lottery the Open can be!

If the weather closes in and you happen to be on the wrong side of the draw you may as well do a Sandy Lyle and walk off the course!

Horrendous morning conditions meant that those with an early tee time have been severely disadvantaged, especially given that the forecast suggests they'll also have the worst of it tomorrow. Unfortunately most of my picks started out this morning.

Goosen was magnificent shooting +1 but it could all be to no avail.
My first casualty was Lefty, it was simply not for him this morning and there'll be no coming back from today's 79.

Ernie Els was more frustrating; he was only one over par after nine holes but completely capitulated on the back nine, shooting 80. Very much out of character he appeared to lose patience completely.

I had a few bets today, of the afternoon starters I backed Dougherty at [210.0] this morning but he's disappointed and I took [26.0] about Furyk after he'd played the 16th. I thought that very fair considering he was only two over at the time and this now looks like a right old grind which should suit him.

I also backed Pod after three holes at [65.0] when it looked like the injury may have been over stated and it still wasn't known how much easier it would be this afternoon then.

My only other bet today was Slocum, when he was added to the list after replacing Taniguchi at the last hour. Someone, who clearly didn't know who he was, put up [1000.0] so I stole in. I layed my stake and a bit almost straight back at [250.0] for a lovely free trade.

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