The Open / Steven Rawlings / 13 July 2009 /

After looking back over the last 20 years, Steve thinks we could be in for another tight finish.

Having correctly predicted the Victory Margin at the US Open I thought I'd take a look at the same market for the Open Championship and the recent records made for interesting reading.

In the last five years there have been two play-offs but in the other three years the margin was at least four shots and that quirky pattern runs further back.

In the last 14 years six events have gone to a play-off but in the same period the winner has prevailed by a single stroke or by two strokes just once. So after 72 holes, there has either been a comfortable winner or a play-off in 12 of the last 14 renewals, a strange sequence of results.

One could argue that those stats don't make a lot of sense and that maybe we're due either a one or two shot victory margin but I think the case for backing a play-off again this year is a strong one.

Two in the last five years, four in the last ten, six in the last 15 and 7 in the last 20 years is a solid enough pattern for me to follow.

It's a fun market and I wont be going mad but given almost 40% of Open Championships have gone to a play-off over the last 20 years, a small bet that there will be another this year should provide some interest and value at anything above [3.5] - a price that's easily attainable.

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