The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 July 2008 /

Some of the world's leading players look set to miss the cut after disastrous early morning first rounds at Royal Birkdale. But Britons, Rose and Westwood, stay in the mix after impressive fightbaks.

True to its reputation, Birkdale has claimed its share of superstar scalps already. Driving wind and rain created the toughest conditions seen at an Open for several years, with the morning starters getting a particularly bad deal. Most significantly, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson all look set to miss the weekend.

The leaderboard clearly illustrates that this afternoon's conditions, if not easy by any means, were not as tough as the morning when the rain was a factor. Retief Goosen and Mike Weir fared best in the morning with rounds of +1, whereas Robert Allenby, Graeme McDowell and Rocco Mediate all went under-par in the afternoon. It won't be easy by any means though for these players to come out firing early tomorrow so soon after a gruelling day. Without wanting to assume the accuracy of changeable weather forecasts, it does appear that conditions aren't going to improve at least until Sunday. If so, this is going to be a battle of endurance and I doubt we'll see anyone finish under-par.

All is by no means lost therefore for main home hopes Lee Westwood and Justin Rose. Both fought back very well from poor starts in the worst of it to shoot 75 and 74 respectively and trade at [40.0]. Defending champion Padraig Harrington also played creditably for his 74, especially considering his wrist injury, though nagging concerns on that score have kept his price out at [50.0].

In reality, anyone on +5 or better still has cause for optimism. And as we've seen in Opens past, there's always scope for dramatic changes on links courses. Nothing has happened to alter my view that this is a grinders' course, with the players to follow those renowned for their accuracy, patience and most of all ability to play in bad weather. The two that strike me as the best value trades for now are Retief Goosen and Mike Weir.

Goosen is a great player of tough golf courses, as you'd have to be to win two US Open titles. Likewise his links form is admirable, with eight top-15s in this championship and a phenomenal match record in the old Dunhill Cup, an event which was usually played in the worst of weather. Unflappable Goosen has the perfect temperament to cope with this gruelling challenge, and looks certain to hang around on this leaderboard after an outstanding opening round. Ditto Weir, another former Major champion who always seems to feature when conditions are tough.

Two trades at [15.0] and [27.0] should offer plenty of entertainment over the weekend. In any case, unless one of the handful of well-positioned early-starters outperform today's best score of 69, I expect both players will shorten up before their later tee-times.

On the 3-ball front, with more tough conditions expected it may pay to oppose players who already look beaten and aren't known for their determination when all seems lost. Its particularly hard to see John Daly being ultra-motivated fighting a lost cause after today's 80. I opposed him yesterday with Tori Taniguchi, only for the Japanese player to pull out beforehand. First reserve Heath Slocum stepped in at the last minute and won the 3-ball, but it was the performance of Richard Finch on his Open debut that really took the eye.

He started disastrously, perhaps due to a mixture of nerves and the brutal conditions, dropping six shots on his first five holes. To play the next 13 holes in -1 was an outstanding effort. I lived for several years in Finch's home town of Hull, so it came as no surprise to see him cope well in the wind and rain. After that, I rate him excellent value at [2.8].

And one of my Find Me a 100 Winner selections, Nick O'Hern, also looks worth a punt in his 3-ball against Ian Poulter and Paul Goydos. Goydos struggled round in 77 on his Open debut, and is a player I've noted previously shooting poor scores when all seems lost. The other two still have everything to play for. Poulter won the first round with a 72 to O'Hern's 74, but overall I reckon the Australian's patient approach is more suitable here than Poulter's 'shoot-the-pin' style. At [2.9], I'd back O'Hern every time on a course like Birkdale.

SELECTIONS

RETIEF GOOSEN @ 15.0
MIKE WEIR @ 27.0

3-BALLS

ST 14.20: NICK O'HERN @ 2.9
ST 14.53: RICHARD FINCH @ 2.8

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