Open Betting: Three reasons to lay Tiger Woods

The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tiger may have shaken off his injury concerns but he might find the hazards of an exposed links course harder to overcome. Paul Krishnamurty explains why it makes sense to lay the world number one at Turnberry.

The Open is his weakest major

Even though he has won the Claret Jug three times, the Open has generally been the major where Woods looks most vulnerable. His three titles came at St Andrews (twice) and Hoylake; both courses where the lack of penal rough played perfectly into his hands. At the other venues on the Open rota - all of which fitted the more usual tough profile - Woods has only twice played a serious part on the final day.

His short odds are too dependent on the luck of the draw

One of the great problems with taking short prices pre-tournament is that a bad draw can leave your player disadvantaged by several shots before even hitting a ball. That proved to be the case at this year's US Open, where Woods never looked like shortening from his starting price of [3.0] after having to play his first round in conditions that were up to four shots harder than those experienced by the later starters. The draw often proves particularly significant at the Open, as wind is the main defence of any links course.

He usually trades much bigger than his starting price

Even when he wins, laying Tiger Woods pre-tournament usually offers the chance to take a profit. Before Sunday's victory at Congressional, it had been well over a year since he had won a tournament without his odds drifting significantly in-running. Woods could have been backed in double figures at some stage during both of his first two victories of 2009.