British Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 04 July 2008 / Leave a comment

With the super-human genius out of the equation, Paul Krishnamurty says the world's best links player is in with a shout.

We have to cast our minds back quite some way to find a major championship anywhere near as wide open as this year's Open. Eleven years and three months to be precise, when Tiger Woods started at roughly [11.0] co-favourite before his first Masters title. Prior to that week, there was a consensus that golf had too much strength in depth for one man to dominate, or even for an elite group to pull away as previously seen with Watson, Nicklaus, Trevino and co.

And if you remove the superhuman genius of Tiger from the equation, that argument still holds. Any one of five players could plausibly start favourite, with Ernie Els currently the biggest-priced favourite in Majors betting history at [14.5]. The best player in Tiger's absence, world No.2 Phil Mickelson, is no less than [20.0]. Funnily enough, Els and Mickelson were always amongst the market leaders in that pre-Tiger era, so in a sense its as if nothing changed for them in the last decade besides winning many fewer tourmaments than they would have without Tiger.

Looking purely at 2008 form, its impossible to make any sort of case for Els even challenging for favouritism. Besides a win in the Honda Classic that came out of nowhere, he's shown very little to suggest he's still a force at the highest level. However, it was a similar story before the last two Opens, yet he still made the top-5 in both years. And in fairness, he played much better at the US Open.

I've consistently said over the past decade that Els is the world's best links golfer, including Tiger. Woods may have won three Claret Jugs to Ernie's one, but the South African's record is far more consistent. In 16 Opens, Ernie has finished in the top-5 eight times including six of the last eight years. Against a record like that, it would take some bravery to lay at [15.0].

If the Open has proved Ernie's best event, its also Mickelson's worst by some distance. In fact, they've been paired in 72-hole matchbets in most of the 13 Opens they've both contested, and Els has won every single time. Phil has never truly mastered the art of links golf. The only time he's ever contended in an Open was at Troon in 2004, when at the absolute peak of his powers. He will have awful memories of Royal Birkdale too, shooting 85/78 over the weekend in 1998. Irrespective of how he performs in his annual warm-up at Loch Lomond next week, I will be opposing Mickelson across numerous markets.

Only three other players are currently trading under [25.0], all are European, two of them renowned for their love of links golf. Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington fought out the play-off last year, and both are certain to be very popular with punters again. Garcia has played in the final group two years running, and is rapidly building an Els-like bank of Open top-10s. Last year's runners-up spot was his sixth top-10 in seven years.

Having won the Players' Championship at Sawgrass already this year, the most prestigious of his career to date, Sergio is perfectly placed to capitalise in a Major whilst Woods is away. Currently second shortest at [15.0], I reckon he'll edge out Ernie for favouritism before the start.

Again, Harrington's record on links courses reveals an obvious chance. Twice a Dunhill Links winner before last year's first major title at Carnoustie, his career still looks on an upward curve. Pod seems to have altered his schedule to peak at the right time in the biggest events, so I'm sure he'll arrive comprehensively prepared for the Birkdale experience.

My only concern is one that I always have about backing defending champions, that they can lose focus amidst all the extra media commitments and pressure. Its not proved an impossible feat though, with four players successfully defending the Open title in the last half century. If he can emulate the feat, Harrington will join a very exclusive club of golfing legends headed most recently by Woods, Watson, Trevino and Palmer.

The third European still within reach of favouritism is someone who never used to be seen as a links specialist, but has steadily improved with experience. The best measure of that improvement is shown in Lee Westwood's Dunhill Links record, where two rounds are played at St Andrews. Early in his career, Lee was quoted as saying he hated St Andrews and didn't rate it as even the best course in Fife. Years later, Westwood made four consecutive Dunhill top-8s, including a win in 2003.

Nevertheless his current odds of [18.5] are based on fine recent form rather than his Open record. Surprisingly, Westwood has only made the top-10 twice in this major, both at Royal Troon. It's easy to understand the gamble, following a string of top efforts in Europe and a near-miss in the US Open. But having backed him at more than six times these odds at Torrey Pines, in a major where Westwood's record was better, I couldn't bring myself to back him now.

Tags: British open, Ernie Els, Golf betting, Lee Westwood, Padraig Harrington, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Tiger woods