The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 June 2008 /

With fitness an obvious concern, Tiger is an appealing lay at [3.6] in the British Open betting for Paul Krishnamurty.

Speaking after winning his third US Open and 14th major championship, Tiger Woods has said this was his greatest victory and it's hard to disagree. To win any major is the ultimate golfing achievement, to do so when obviously injured, unprepared and playing in pain defies belief. Especially when he had to limp round 91 holes.

He also broke the convention that you can't win a US Open without regularly hitting fairways. Even by Tiger's standards, the magic and drama he created on or around the greens on all four days was unprecedented. I'm struggling at the moment to recall watching a more exciting tournament. Having won for the sixth time in six years at Torrey Pines, you have to wonder just how many shots Tiger would have won by in anything approaching peak form and fitness.

But while it's only right that we bask in the moment, looking forward there is now a question mark over both Woods' short and long-term prospects. His one obvious remaining career goal is to break Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 career majors. Now just four behind, it looks a certainty as long as he can retain form and fitness for the next few years. The last point has now become a matter of deep concern though.

As Bill Elliott pointed out here last week, with three knee operations already and little sign of the problem being fixed, Tiger's remaining time at the game's summit could be limited. There is only so much damage the body can take, and I can't see how last weekend's efforts will have helped. I doubt there's another player out there who would have played in that condition at Torrey Pines.

It seems inevitable that an already restricted schedule is going to get even shorter. In his post-round interview last night, he said he couldn't commit yet to playing in next month's Open Championship. We certainly won't see him in action before Birkdale, and besides the three remaining majors and WGC events, I doubt we'll see very much of him at all in the rest of 2008. There may even be the tiniest shred of doubt as to whether he'll play in the Ryder Cup.

Nevertheless, having just witnessed his determination to play at Torrey Pines, its hard to imagine him missing the Open. Woods will fancy his chances at Birkdale as he finished third there when a links golf novice back in 1998. That result suggests it's a very suitable course for him, but it's no Torrey Pines. Unless his long game is in much better shape there, I can't see him winning. As I'm sure he won't keep the media regularly updated about the condition of the knee and his ability to practice, no doubt the rumour mill will go into overdrive once again in the run-up.

Never mind trying to pick the winner, just trading Woods' price alone is a perfectly valid betting strategy. His price fluctuations both before and during the US Open were as volatile as I can remember. Ante-post, he shortened from [3.7] to [2.02], only to drift back out to around [4.8] before the tournament started. In-running, every time he winced in pain the market reacted. On Sunday, after missing the second fairway and keeling over, Butch Harmon mused on Sky that he could struggle to finish the round. His odds drifted immediately from [2.7] to [4.8] on the basis of that one moment!

All that speculation will start again at Birkdale, and for now I can only see his odds moving one way. Though laying Tiger is something I rarely do, I just can't see him starting any shorter than the current [3.6] and have re-invested some of my US Open profits in expectation of another drift.

The injury could also have a profound implication for other long-term markets. With a lead of nearly $1.8M, I doubt he can be caught in the PGA Tour Money List, though I also doubt anyone would want to risk a fortune at odds of [1.1] on that outcome. Of greater interest is whether he will bother entering the lucrative Fedex Cup play-off events. If not, then that could be a fascinating, wide-open market in his absence. Last year's inaugural Fedex Cup failed to capture the imagination of the betting public, largely because Woods quickly became a near-certainty. In his absence, the favourite would probably start at no less than [25.0].

In fact, while obviously wishing the great man a speedy recovery, this idea of a lighter schedule is quite attractive. The one downside of the Woods era has been that he's rendered so many golf tournaments obsolete as a betting medium. So while we all want to see him compete in the majors, break Jack's record and further rewrite the history books, I do like the idea of a return to wide-open golf betting markets.

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