The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 July 2010 /

Rory and Tiger are rightful favourites, says Paul Krishnamurty, but their presence towards the top of the leaderboard makes some other prices hugely tempting

While there were plenty of good performances on the best day for scoring anyone can ever remember in a major, the opening day at St Andrews was all about one man. After shooting a superb 63, equalling the best round in majors history, Rory McIlroy is firmly entrenched as tournament favourite; a [4.4] chance to give Northern Ireland it's second successive major.

Rory's position is great news on a personal note, having recommended him to win yesterday's three-ball and to win the title last month at [21.0], but in truth, the hard work starts here.

The key to becoming a champion depends on how one handles the pressure of being centre-stage, and for all his ability, Rory remains unproven in that department. Critics will doubtless point to the fact that he's only won two professional events, one of which came after a final day charge from off the pace.

Nevertheless, I see no good reason not to feel confident. He has never shot higher than 69 around the Old Course, and if maintaining that record would be practically unbeatable. Another positive is the nature of St Andrews. Playing catch-up golf is more difficult around this layout than most, because most of the birdies and eagles arrive on the same half a dozen or so holes. That makes life harder for the chasers, who need to go after tricky pins, while the front-runners can adopt a more patient strategy, therefore minimalising risk.

The obvious danger is Tiger Woods, whose opening 67 rather dispelled any suggestion that he's gone at the game. If Rory's St Andrews record is good, then Tiger's is even better. As Steven Rawlings rightly points out, [5.7] is an absolutely huge price on the basis of Woods' previous heroics around this course. On a layout where the best players tend to dominate, it would be no surprise to see Rory and Tiger pull away over the weekend and turn this into a duel.

The only other player currently trading below [36.0] is Lee Westwood at [9.8], but if you're looking for someone to take on the 'Big-Two', I suggest some more adventurous selections. Today's forecast is for strong winds, which should benefit the late starters, several of whom could see their odds shorten markedly.

Four new trades take the eye. Firstly, the bad weather should play into the hands of Ross Fisher, currently available at [55.0]. He is one of the very best when it comes to hitting a low ball-flight under the wind, and that skill has already produced two promising Open performances. He's also long enough off the tee to butcher the short holes at St Andrews, and is worth keeping onside for what looks like being a tough weekend on the weather front.

The other three picks are all huge prices, but could offer some trading mileage. Alejandro Canizares, Bo Van Pelt and Thomas Bjorn all have plenty of good recent form. Their current respective prices combine to around [100.0], so my plan is to lay the entire stake back, should any of them shorten to [50.0] at any stage of the event. I doubt this strategy will find the Open winner, but if two out of the three hit the target I'll double my money. Moreover, the risk involved is miniscule at these odds.

Recommended Bets:
Ross Fisher @ [55.0]

Alejandro Canizares @ [220.0]
Bo Van Pelt @ [280.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [500.0]

Lay combined stake of the last three back, should any of them hit [50.0]

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