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British Open Three-Ball Betting: Former champions can land upsets on day one

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Watson and O'Meara are amongst our golf tipster's picks as he goes through the first day three-ball betting at Birkdale

STARTING TIME 07.36: TOM WATSON @ [5.8]

A regular feature of major championships are the opening day shocks, usually in the form of either an amateur or legendary veteran hitting a cracking first round. I wouldn't go as far as to suggest Tom Watson will steal the headlines, but I do think the five-times former champion is capable of landing this early-morning upset. This three-ball will be prominent in the early TV coverage, so should attract plenty of liquidity. I strongly expect Watson's price to trade considerably lower than the current [5.8].

Champion at Birkdale 25 years ago, and now 58 years of age, nobody expects any fireworks from Watson this week. He does, however, remain a star on the Champions Tour and usually puts up a decent fight in this and other Majors. He's successfully made his last three Open cuts, and has only once hit 80 in the Open over the last decade. I don't think an level par opening round is out of the question.

If he can shoot level par, it may well be enough to beat Justin Rose and Aaron Baddeley, two players on my 'oppose list' this week. Baddeley has yet to make an Open cut in four attempts, and while Rose will be widely tipped because of his fourth place here as an amateur in 1998, there's nothing in his 2008 form to warrant his paltry odds.


ST 07.47: GEOFF OGILVY @ [2.3]

My opening day banker also tees off nice and early, former US Open champion Geoff Ogilvy to beat Oliver Wilson and Davis Love. For me, Ogilvy is a must for the tournament shortlist, a surefire contender who plays tough golf courses and major championships well. It stands to reason therefore, that I rate Ogilvy a rock-solid favourite against two players about whom I have few expectations this week.

Wilson is making second Open appearance, having struggled on his debut at Carnoustie. If this promising player could transfer his Euro Tour form to this links course then he would make a dangerous opponent, but that's a very big 'if'. I'm reading nothing into Sunday's top-10 at Loch Lomond, as Birkdale will be an entirely different experience. Love on the other hand has bags of links experience, and used to be a regular Open contender until noticeably declining in recent years. Davis has missed his last three Open cuts, and is yet to register a single top-20 in 2008.


ST 12.25: MARK O'MEARA @ [3.5]

Another former Birkdale hero worth a trade at decent odds is 1998 champion Mark O'Meara, who also finished third in 1991 on this course. It's not that I have any great expectations about O'Meara, now a golfing senior and not a particularly successful one at that. Rather, I don't think he'll have to do anything special to win this and can envisage at least one of his opponents running up a huge score.

It would take a very brave man to part with cash on Michael Campbell these days, as the Kiwi is enduring one of his catastrophic spells. Campbell must be the streakiest player of recent times, either a world-beater or terrible. In 2008 its been very much the latter, with just two cuts made. Niclas Fasth would be a shoe-in for this on his best form, but is really struggling right now, with 59th place his best finish in his last seven tournaments.


ST 09.42: TORU TANIGUCHI @ [2.8]

One former champion I don't expect anything from is John Daly, a man who has consistently been a good bet to oppose in three-balls and two-balls over the years. Outside of St Andrews, he's never made the top-60 here, and if Birkdale plays as tough as I expect he could spend the afternoon hacking around and running up big scores.

The betting in his three-ball remains pretty close though, because his playing partners are hardly leading lights. Richard Finch is well capable on his day, winning twice this year, but has endured a miserable run since winning in Ireland a couple of months back. I wouldn't wholly write Finch off, but much prefer experienced Japanese player Toru Taniguchi.

Taniguchi has far from disgraced himself on previous Open visits, making three cuts from six attempts, and has been in solid form on the Japanese Tour recently. If he can manage 71 or better tomorrow, I doubt Taniguchi will have much trouble landing this uncompetitive three-ball.