The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 July 2008 /

The Aussie challenge has been gathering momentum and Paul Krishnamurty knows some men from down under who won't be daunted by the conditions at Royal Birkdale.

It's 15 years since Greg Norman became the last Australian to win the Claret Jug, a surprising statistic considering that country has provided the Open champion on nine occasions. Its even more surprising because in the meantime, the Aussie challenge has been gaining ever greater strength in depth. Fourteen different Aussies have won tournaments on either the PGA or European Tour since 2005.

Another reason I usually expect a strong Aussie challenge is that many of their great courses present fairly similar tests to British links. All of the courses used for their championship events play hard and fast, and many are exposed to wind. Betting based on this theory has failed miserably in the last few years, but their record at Birkdale suggests this could be the venue to end the drought.

Three of the eight Birkdale winners were Australian. Peter Thomson won two of his five Opens at the famous Southport links, and Ian Baker-Finch won the penultimate Birkdale Open in 1991, ahead of compatriot Mike Harwood.

At odds of [32.0], the market suggests Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy are their strongest hopes this time. Of the pair, I'd much prefer Ogilvy, as he consistently performs well on tough golf courses and in the biggest events. Already a US Open champion and twice a winner of WGC events, Ogilvy could well add an Open championship to his portfolio either now or in the years to come.

In direct contrast, Scott still shows little sign of converting his regular tournament form over to the Majors. His British Open record is terrible for a player in the world's top-five, with eighth place at Hoylake his only top-20 from eight tries. My explanation for this persistent underperformance is that Scott's skills are more suited to target golf courses with receptive greens, on which he has very few peers. But he's rarely looked a force on hard and fast golf courses and despite 15 worldwide wins, it speaks volumes that he's never won in his own country.

Its much harder to explain the similar underperformance of Aussie stalwarts Robert Allenby and Stuart Appleby in this and other majors. This pair have over 30 worldwide wins between them, 12 on the PGA Tour including many on tough golf courses. Yet in the Open, besides Appleby reaching a four-man play-off in 2002, they boast only one top-10 between them in over twenty attempts. In my view, both are very well suited to Birkdale. [65.0] chance Allenby has been relentlessly consistent from tee to green this season, an essential requirement on this course, and did make the top-20 here in 1998.

But its Appleby, one of the great wind players, who rates the best bet of all in the outright market at 90.0. Its no coincidence that his best Open was at Muirfield, scene of the toughest weather conditions of recent years. A mark of just how good Appleby is in the wind lies in his three consecutive Mercedes titles at Kapalua, arguably the most consistently windy venue in top-class golf.

Others that must rate a mention include regular PGA Tour contenders Aaron Baddeley and Rod Pampling. Badds will prove much the better player over the long term, but has yet to show any of his potential in an Open. There are worse [180.0] bets than Pampling though, a player yet to miss a cut in four Opens and who has been very consistent of late in the States.

We've seen previously how Birkdale suits the steady, unspectacular type that can relentlessly hit greens in regulation. Thinking back to the profiles in 1998 of Brian Watts and Jim Furyk, who finished 2nd and 4th respectively, two of the best Aussie chances may lie with left-handers Richard Green and Nick O'Hern. Both certain to start at very big prices, Green's claim is boosted by the fact that he made the frame at Carnoustie, while O'Hern has been extremely accurate in recent PGA Tour starts.

Though he's one of their higher-ranked players, O'Hern isn't among those fourteen top-grade winners. Despite going close on too many occasions to remember, he's still yet to win outside Australia. There are almost certainly 'bottle' issues, but he can hardly be considered hopeless in this department having twice beaten Tiger in the World Matchplay. Irrespective of his failure to win, O'Hern has proved a very reliable bet over the years in tournament match bets or the top-10 finish market. Hailing from Perth, home to the infamous late afternoon wind known as the 'Fremantle Doctor', he'll be one of the few that won't be too concerned by Birkdale's reputation.

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