The Open / Tareq Quiroz / 15 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Padraig Harrington has shown over the last two years that European golfers can compete for the biggest prizes. Does Tareq Quiroz believe one of the continent's players can triumph at Turnberry?

All the majors are great events but there really is nothing like setting yourself down in front of the box for 11 solid hours of golf on the first day of The Open Championship. If the sight of the world's best players battling it out around Britain's best courses doesn't get you going then nothing will. You can go interactive, watch it online and even have a punt without ever moving from your armchair - perfect.

As is always the case in the build up to these big events we talk non-stop about the chances of a European victory. Padraig Harrington has shown everyone else that this batch of Europeans can compete on the big stage. His three majors is a magnificent feat but he is the only person in the last 10 years. Harrington is a real battler but he will have to produce something from the miracle bag if he is to turn his game around enough to win this week. For me, his current odds of [42.0] are nowhere near big enough.

The platform has been laid by Harrington but it is important that another European follows suit and soon. A quick look at the market and you would think that is a foregone conclusion. On Sunday evening, following Martin Kaymer's fabulous win in the Scottish Open, European players filled the next 10 places in the market behind Tiger. The last few days has seen some infiltration but that huge body of Europeans still has a huge presence at the top of the market.

Sergio Garcia leads a group of eight Europeans that are right at the top of the betting and is currently available at [32.0]. I believe that Sergio deserves his place in the top echelon but I am not sure the same can be said about some others. Don't worry too much about his indifferent form over this season as he will raise his game. He has three top five finishes in the last four years in the Open and will be feared by all if he gets into the mix.

But what of the rest of the Europeans hanging around at the top of the market? Paul Casey is available at [38.0] - why I really don't know. He had a super start to the season, highlighted by a win in the States, but since then he has been well off the pace. Couple that with his average record in majors and he is far too short to win this week.

Ian Poulter has had a very consistent season and is looking a far more reliable prospect. But just as you felt as though you could trust him with your money he throws a tantrum at the Open de France and the old worries resurface. Two top 10s in majors does nothing for me and he is another European to be avoided this week.

It may seem like I am just knocking off the Europeans chances one by one...and that is exactly what I am doing. I can hold off no longer on my next target. Rory McIlroy cannot win the Open Championship this year. He has bizarrely traded as low as [13.0] in the Winner market and has a high of [85.0]. He currently stands at [40.0] but I think it is the high traded price that is closer to representing his chances of victory. The lad has a majestic swing and in time he will be a major contender. Rory's start to the season was whirlwind stuff and the world of golf stood up to take notice. However, in recent weeks he has gone a bit off the boil and I can see no reason at all to suggest he will be parading the Claret Jug around on Sunday afternoon.

Other than Garcia the only other European who deserves their chance at the top of the market is Lee Westwood. His Open record really isn't anything special but it has been a while since he has been striking the ball as well as he is at the moment. He will take great heart from last week's valiant effort in adversity and I think he will represent Europe's best chance at Turnberry this week. Certainly at odds of around [38.0] he is a decent punt.

There are eight European players in the top 11 in the betting. Those are the facts but they are not representative of the reality. Don't get sucked into the hype as there is a lot of value to be had outside those under priced top European players. If a European does win I think it must be Westwood or Garcia but whatever happens I won't be leaving my armchair for four whole days...

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