The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty picks his best bets from the first day three balls at Turnberry...

07:25 - Back Adam Scott @ 2.4 (vs Dougherty, Duval)

Few players took the eye at Loch Lomond more than Scott, who looks to have turned the corner after a terrible spell. He acknowledged afterwards that his putting was still poor, so it's a testimony to his long game that Scott finished fourth in such strong company. A repeat performance from tee to green at Turnberry would give the Aussie a decent chance on this tougher course.

Both of Adam's opponents here have enjoyed one great week lately, though neither really convinces as likely to follow up. Dougherty won the recent BMW International Open, but struggled again at Loch Lomond over the weekend, and doesn't seem particularly likely to improve on an Open best of just 42nd.

As for Duval, his strong challenge for the US Open came completely out of the blue, having failed to make a single top-50 in 2009 beforehand. A lot of strange things happened at Bethpage Black, so I don't think there's much to be gained into reading that result literally.

07:58 - Lay Sergio Garcia @ [1.46] (vs Watson, Mannesaro)

While he is without doubt a serious contender for the Claret Jug, it's hard to imagine any pre-round scenario where a player like Sergio Garcia would rate a confident selection at [1.46]. For all his talent, Garcia has always been unreliable, and when taking such short odds, one would surely prefer a player with a reliable putting stroke.

This early 3-ball is not as straightforward as it seems either. Tom Watson and Matteo Mannesaro may fully deserve their [1000.00] quotes to win the event, but both look capable of starting well. Over the years, we've seen plenty of amateurs and veterans get off to a flyer on the opening day of majors before the course took its toll. Indeed, Watson landed a nice touch for this column 12 months ago to the day.

The five-times Open champion, who triumphed at this venue 32 years ago, remains a classy links performer. Despite his advancing years, Tom's last 10 opening rounds in this major have only twice produced a score worse than 75. As for highly rated 16-year-old Mannesaro, he could well be out of his depth but has at least shown plenty of promise on links courses in the top amateur events.

11.41 - Back Damian McGrane @ [2.5] (vs Kuchar, Stewart)

This represents my best bet of the day, with McGrane rated as one of the better outsiders at Turnberry. Like all the Irish players, McGrane will be comfortable in typically Scottish links conditions, and comes here in decent form after a pair of top-25s. Though he missed the cut on last year's Open debut, McGrane has proven his liking for this type of golf in the Dunhill Links Championship before.

I doubt he'll have to shoot too low to win this 3-ball. Kuchar is a decent, mid-division player on the PGA Tour, but has shown no sign of transferring that level of form over to this links event, in which he's missed the cut on each of his four appearances. I must confess to never having heard of Australian amateur Stewart, but there's nothing in his record to suggest he would have serious hopes of making the cut.

12.58 - Back Ernie Els @ [2.4] (vs Kaymer, Glover)

Few groups will attract as many followers during the afternoon than this group, comprised of crowd favourite and tournament legend Ernie Els, US Open champion Lucas Glover plus the man bidding for his third win in as many weeks, Martin Kaymer. For reasons explained in detail elsewhere, Ernie is fancied to maintain his incredibly consistent Open record, so it stands to reason that he must be backed in this 3-ball against two players I'm looking to oppose at Turnberry.

Kaymer is the hottest player in Europe right now and a tremendous prospect. However, all of his efforts in majors to date have left the impression that he has an awful lot to learn about the toughest championship courses, and I doubt he'll improve significantly on last year's debut effort of 80th.

Glover still hasn't had a week off since landing that [400.0] shock at Bethpage, and could be forgiven if tired and slightly under-prepared. He can't afford to be either, as three previous tries in the Open left no clue that he would ever be a factor in this major. Then again, most of us would have said that before the US Open.

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