The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 July 2008 /

Besides Sergio Garcia, the value for the crown of Top European may lie with the outsiders

It stands to reason that the British Open represents by far the best major opportunity for European players. Even leaving aside the fact that they are more likely to be at home in windy conditions on links golf courses, dozens more European Tour players qualify for the Open than they do for any other major. Partly for this reason, and partly because many of our top guns rarely produce their best on links, trying to figure out which one of them will come out on top is rarely a straightforward task.

Amongst the last 10 players to finish as 'Top European' at the Open, at least three were huge outsiders that only the shrewdest, (or luckiest) would have even considered. Niclas Fasth was a completely unconsidered rank outsider when finishing runner-up to David Duval at Lytham in 2001. At Carnoustie in 1999, few will have looked to Paul Lawrie at a huge price, and surely nobody on earth backed runner-up Jean Van De Velde.

And in the last Birkdale Open, two of the three Europeans to share 4th place behind a trio of Americans would have been [1000.0] pre-tournament chances had Betfair been around, Raymond Russell and the then unknown 17 year-old amateur Justin Rose.

With these results in mind, there must be a temptation to lay all or some of the main candidates in the hope that some [1000.0] shot comes through again.

I would, however, be very wary of opposing Sergio Garcia, who looks certain now to start favourite for the whole event. Garcia has become a mainstay in the Open top-10, looking better suited to this form of golf than anyone in Europe. Last year he was touched off in the play-off by Padraig Harrington having traded extremely short in-running, and the previous year finished as top Euro behind Woods at Hoylake. Given that the main argument against backing him to win the tournament is one concerning temperament, it could make more sense to back him in this market instead. The odds won't be anything to get excited about though.

As for Harrington, he too has extremely obvious claims and is likely to be a strong contender again, provided the extra pressure of being defending champion doesn't take its toll. I've already assessed the main UK representatives, most of whom strike me as unsuited to links golf, unreliable and persistently poor value. Naturally though, the two home players I mentioned positively there, Graeme McDowell and Nick Dougherty, are prominent in my thoughts against their fellow Ryder Cup candidates.

Continental Europe has much more to offer besides Garcia, most obviously Order of Merit contenders Robert Karlsson and Miguel-Angel Jiminez. Jiminez does have some snippets of links form, most notably third behind Duval seven years ago. He also finished 12th last year and went well for a long way at Hoylake in 2006. How he deals with Birkdale though is anyone's guess, as 'The Mechanic' was disqualified after the first round in 1998.

If Karlsson can carry over the rest of his 2008 form to Birkdale, he is a very serious contender for the title, let alone Euro top-dog status. The chances of that seem remote though, as the Swede has made only one of his last eight Open cuts. Like his compatriot Henrik Stenson, he just doesn't look a natural links player. The one Scandinavian who is a fully proven links specialist, Thomas Bjorn, has finished as top European twice this century but looks gone at the game currently.

A more interesting Scandinavian could be another Dane, Soren Hansen. In the last 12 months, he seems to have improved considerably to become a regular contender, even if doubts about his ability to get over the finishing line persist. Amongst his four Open attempts, the best was eighth place at Muirfield in 2002, when Hansen was in contention throughout and arguably got the worst of the weather.

And available at what will surely be a tasty price, Thomas Levet could be a bit of value having shown his liking for links before. Levet missed out in the play-off at Muirfield, and showed that was no fluke when making the frame at Royal Troon two years later. The likeable Frenchman has been as reliable as anyone else in Europe over the past year in terms of hitting greens in regulations, an attribute that cannot be overstated at brutal Birkdale.

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