The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 July 2009 /

Paul Krishnamurty tells us why Tom Watson is unlikely to last the distance and his betting plans for today in a last-ditch attempt to come out of The Open showing a profit.

We gamblers will all have our own particular interests going into the final day, but the discussion amongst the wider golfing audience is entirely dominated by one topic. Can 59 year-old Tom Watson defy history and any meaningful formbook to win his sixth Open title, 27 years after his last triumph?

It would certainly represent a monumental shock, and one of the all-time great sporting fairytales, but however heroic his front-running performance has been up until now, I still refuse to accept that it can last and make the formbook seem so completely irrelevant. After the freak US Open result, a victory here for a pre-tournament [1000.0] chance would prompt a further crisis of confidence amongst serious golf punters.

As he has aged, the main part of Watson's game that has detiorated has been putting. For at least the last 15 years, Tom has always seemed extremely vulnerable over those key five-footers, especially for par. Yet this week he's barely missed a thing, and holed several long putts into the bargain. Its tempting to conclude that his luck on the greens is due to the change, and under the most intense pressure of the final day of a major, that weakness could resurface.

You may recall that Greg Norman met a similar fate when chasing almost as unlikely a victory last year, with the putter suddenly going cold at the most pivotal moments. Nevertheless, like Norman, I don't think Watson will embarrass himself today by any means, and is more than capable of holding of for a top-5 finish, which in itself would represent an incredible achievement.

Watson's best hope probably lies in the fact that, while the chasing pack appear very strong, all have poor recent records of closing the deal. His playing partner in the final group, Matt Goggin, hasn't won for ten years. Lee Westwood and Jim Furyk have all the class and experience required for victory, but neither has won for two years. Retief Goosen is the only player under par with a 2009 title to his name, but has blown golden opportunities in his last two events.

Ross Fisher has also had his fair share of frustrating near-misses of late. Its just a year since he won his second professional title, in which time he's had four more top-3s, reached the semis of the World Matchplay and challenged strongly for the US Open. Its worth adding that, despite those near-misses, Fisher hasn't appeared to 'bottle' any of those opportunities, and had previously displayed a perfect temperament for both of his front-running wins.

My previous trades in this event have bitten the dust, so in one last bid to salvage a profit out of this enthralling tournament I'm going for Fisher to land his first major title at [5.2]. He's looked very comfortable in the tough conditions over the last couple of days, further enhancing his reputation as a great 'bad weather player'. And if Monday's headline writers aren't to have their ideal fairytale, their next best result would surely be for Ross to lift the Claret Jug a few hours before the birth of his first child.

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