The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 July 2009 /

Despite his putting woes Ernie Els remains a links master and should be backed accordingly at Turnberry, says Paul Krishnamurty.

This year's Open marks the end of a long and glorious run for me. Every year since I can first remember them being paired against one another, (1996 I think), I've had the same 72-hole matchbet at the Open; Ernie Els to beat Phil Mickelson. Every year, the Big Easy has won; usually by a sizeable margin. Sadly, with Mickelson missing this year's event due to his wife's battle with cancer, I'll have to look elsewhere.

Now I suspect most of you will think I've got off lightly, bearing in mind their respective form in 2009. While Mickelson has looked as good as ever, firmly entrenched in the world no.2 slot, Ernie has been on a miserable run and has slipped out of the top-20. If this match were available at Turnberry, Mickelson would have been strong favourite.

Indeed, Ernie's odds across the board are by far his biggest since making his Open debut 17 years ago. His customary position this century has been as clear second favourite behind Tiger, even starting sometimes in single figures. This time, he's been matched at up to [80.0], though those odds have shortened to [50.0] in recent days. Even then, that must represent at least a bit of trading value on the basis of an awesome tournament record.

To some extent, one would expect attractive odds to win the event simply because Woods dominates the market, but that caveat barely applies to the top-10 and top-5 markets, where odds of [4.5] and [10.0] are frankly an insult to a man I've long considered the best links player of his generation. Lets just recap his previous feats in this major. Since making his debut in 1992, Ernie has won once, at Muirfield in 2002, made the top-3 six times, plus a further five top-10s. He has only missed the top-20 three times, and never finished worse than 34th.

And while nobody would dispute that the last couple of seasons have been very disappointing, he is by no means 'gone' at the game. Only last week, Els finished just one shot outside the top-10 at Loch Lomond, and led the greens in regulation stats. That statistic is the surest sign that a player is hitting the ball well, confirming that if it wasn't for persistent struggles with the putter, he'd still be winning tournaments.

As for these putting weaknesses, at least he was working on the greens until darkness in Scotland last week. Equally, it bodes well that Els has made several visits in Turnberry recently, and his comments about the course offer further encouragement. Ernie reckons Turnberry will play very tough, with the rough at its longest. With the wind usually a factor at this Ayrshire venue, everything points to a typically gruelling links test.

Ernie is a master of such conditions. He is one of the very best players in windy conditions, and his scrambling skills on a links are as good as it gets. He should be able to negotiate his way around here, and even if there is a shortage of birdie putts, relentless pars could be enough to be moving up the leaderboard.

Last year's effort at Birkdale could be instructive. Els was struggling then too, and looked a certainty to miss the cut after shooting 80 on the opening day, his worst ever score at an Open. Yet typically, he kept a cool head, stuck to the task, and three days later had improved his position to seventh; once again delivering for us loyal supporters in various speciality markets.

The key point about the Mickelson match bet was that while Ernie is a links master, Lefty never thrives at this type of golf and has a poor Open record. In his absence, I've had to look for an alternative, and I think Geoff Ogilvy could be the man.

Four of the Aussie's six Opens to date have resulted in poor missed cuts, with the two decent efforts coming at unusually benign Open venues. Until he proves himself on a narrow, penal links, Ogilvy's Open credentials remain open to question. Ernie is available at [1.94] in the 'matchbets with ties' list.

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