The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 July 2008 /

A European hasn't finished in the top-three at Royal Birkdale for 32 years. Paul Krishnamurty doubts the trend will be broken this year.

The safest bet of this year's championship is that by Friday night we'll all be sick to death of seeing the footage of Justin Rose holing out from the fairway on the 72nd hole in the 1998 Birkdale Open. I suppose you can understand the BBC's predicament. With so few highlights from British players in any majors this century, there's very little else to shout about other than 4th place by a teenage amateur ten years ago.

From that moment on, Rose was no stranger to hype, and he's just the latest in a long line of British sportsmen and women to suffer from the unrealistic expectations of a public desperate for a glimmer of success. In golf, things have been so bleak that many of us claimed Irishman Padraig Harrington as our own last year and even more pathetically, I was one of those people claiming Ernie Els as an honorary Brit when he won because he lives in Surrey.

Nevertheless with Woods out and question marks surrounding many of the other top challengers, it will prove pointless trying to put a lid on national expectations this year. I just hope we don't see, as we did at the Masters, one home player after another speaking of some coming era when we'll have several different major winners. Just the one would be nice for now.

Birkdale's history suggests it will be a tough call. Never mind British, no European has ever won here, with Seve Ballesteros the last to make the top-3 way back in 1976. In fairness there must be a strong chance of amending that statistic now, because I doubt there's ever been so much strength in depth in British golf. The problem is that, with the honorable exception of Lee Westwood in the recent US Open, the top British names have persistently under-performed in the Majors.

According to the betting, Westwood holds our strongest hope. Having missed out by just a shot at Torrey Pines and barely been out of the frame in Europe this year, its hard to argue with that analysis. However, as I've pointed out elsewhere , Lee's Open record is nothing to write home about and not what I'd expect of a player challenging for favouritism.

I would much rather back Westwood than Rose though, with the latter a ridiculous price at [26.0]. Yes he enjoyed a fine 2007, winning the Order of Merit. But on the basis of his efforts this term, there is no justification for these paltry odds. Second place in the Memorial is his only good tournament this year, and even that owed a great deal to some miraculous recovery play as his long game was anything but controlled. There was nothing in last week's rare homeland performance, where he finished 22 shots off the pace in 38th place, to suggest he's primed to challenge again at Birkdale.

Though their odds are much better, similar comments have to apply to Paul Casey and Luke Donald. Nobody doubts their talent, but both need to improve considerably to justify odds of [50.0], especially in this distinctive event. Casey's best from six Opens is merely 20th place, while Donald's record is even worse with 35th at Hoylake his only top-50 from eight tries.

And what of Colin Montgomerie, the man who has cost patriotic punters so much in recent Opens? For years his odds have been far too short in this major purely because of the home advantage factor, though until a few weeks ago even his most loyal followers wouldn't have argued he had a prayer. A couple of decent finishes in Europe though, and the annual plunge has begun. Matched at a high of [250.], Monty is down to just [75.0]. In fairness he's improved as a links player with experience, but lets not forget that Colin has only ever made one Open top-10 and missed the cut at Birkdale 10 years ago when a much better player than now.

With such an uninspiring set of main contenders, those looking to back a home player might be better off studying the claims of others at bigger prices. Nick Dougherty, for instance, won last year's Dunhill Links and, hailing from Liverpool, will enjoy considerable local support. I can't see a reason why Nick should be, at [150.0], three times the odds of his old Walker Cup mate Donald.

And though I wish I'd backed him a week ago before his 3rd place in the European Open, Northern Ireland's Graeme McDowell has improved this season and holds as good a chance as any on a links course. McDowell grew up playing links golf at Royal Portrush and has one decent Open to his name already, St Andrews in 2005. Though it would be have been nice to have backed him earlier at more than twice the current odds, 85.0 still represents fair value. I reckon there's every chance he will win an Open at some stage in his career, so why not Birkdale?

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