AT&T National Betting: Will Tiger take his last chance to seize the Open initiative?

The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 30 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

A Woods wins this weekend will not affect Paul Krishnamurty's stance on Tiger's Turnberry price - he'll be a layer.

Though their reasons are understandable, the unflinching loyalty of Tiger Woods' backers does surprise me sometimes.

It is well over a year since Woods really dominated a tournament. He has won a couple of times since returning from injury, but on both occasions, those who patiently waited for his odds to drift to double figures in-running were duly rewarded. Last time out at the US Open, he was a rock-solid favourite before the tournament, but never got into contention.

If this were a mere mortal we were talking about, I'm sure punters would have latched on to this obvious clue of laying at short prices pre-tournament, but because it is Woods, the usual wall of money is up on the exchange to back him around [3.1]. And this on a course where he missed the top-five on both attempts as a professional.

Presumably, punters are making much of the fact that the AT&T National is Tiger's own tournament, with a substantial share of proceeds going to his foundation. The assumption being made is that he'll be trying his hardest to win; surely a weak argument given that nobody alive has ever seen Woods give less than 100% in any competitive situation.

Of course Woods can win, and holds a great chance to do so. Even if he didn't seem quite at his best at Bethpage, his long game stats were pretty impressive and will serve him well again this week at Congressional. And if sixth and 12th placed finishes in the past two renewals represents failure by his standards, by anyone else's that would be a good course record. Nevertheless, one could say this about Woods every time he tees it up, and from a trading perspective all my instincts suggest a lay at [3.1] is the perfect way to start building an in-running book.

Which brings me to the forthcoming Open Championship. As Tiger will play no more competitive golf before the July 16 showpiece at Turnberry, whatever he does this week will significantly affect the Open betting. Right now, Woods is trading around [3.8]; a price that again looks the perfect lay from which to build a position.

It's important to remember Tiger's indifferent record in this major. Again, anyone else would laugh at the idea of three Open titles representing an 'indifferent' record, but by Woods' standards the rest of his efforts make disappointing reading. The three titles he won were on wide-open courses that suited him perfectly; St Andrews and Hoylake; and outside those venues he's only ever seriously challenged twice. Turnberry seems much more like the penal links layouts that he's yet to conquer.

No doubt Woods' Open odds are further restricted this year by the likely absence of arch-rival Phil Mickelson, and the total lack of form of the three principal links players; Padraig Harrington, Sergio Garcia and Ernie Els. Their prospects could yet improve with some good results over the next few weeks, but right now its hard to see who, bar Tiger, will start below [20.0].

However, in my view, the failings of the principal opposition isn't a good enough reason to back Woods. As we've seen so many times to painful effect recently, this game of golf is wide open nowadays and there are dozens of potential winners lurking in every pack. In those circumstances, one really must be a layer of short-priced favourites.