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BMW PGA Championship Betting: Long-hitter Stenson is a worthy favourite

Golf Events RSS / / 20 May 2009 /

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With a course which provides a test for even the very best as well as a worthy favourite, it's no surprise that Tareq Quiroz considers this weekend's BMW PGA Championship to be one of the season's premier tournaments.

After the Ryder Cup style scenes that greeted the end of the Irish Open last week I will be glad to get back to the rather more serene surroundings of good old Wentworth. It is still hard to believe that Shane Lowry actually won the Irish Open. No matter what happens for the rest of the season that will go down as one of the main highlights. Amateur Lowry will not be in the field for this week's all pro affair at Wentworth but we do have a world class field for Europe's flagship event.

The Course

Anybody who is a regular watcher of golf will be familiar with the venue for this week's event. The Wentworth Club is the fabulous host for what is one of the season's premier tournaments. Local resident Ernie Els has been instrumental in course changes over the years and which have been managed without any great upheaval. It now measures just over 7,300 yards and is a test for the best in any conditions.

The key areas to focus on are the start and finish of this fine venue. The opening hole is tough and often catches players out. A bogey here can set the trend for the round so it is important you get through the opening three holes unscathed before attacking the easy par five fourth.

One of the reasons we often get exciting finishes to this event is the fact that it concludes with two par fives. The 17th is very long now and is a difficult driving hole, but the long-hitters who do find the fairway can reach the green in two. Over the years we have seen many a round end three or even four under before those two holes. So if you are playing in-running be fully aware of the changes that are possible over the closing holes.

The Favourite

We have a worthy jolly this week. Henrik Stenson is not what you might call a red hot favourite but he certainly deserves his place at the top of the winner market. The Swede is the highest ranked player in the field following his success in the Players Championship a couple of weeks ago. You do not get to number four in the world by winning one event and Stenson has developed into a consistently top level performer.

His record at Wentworth isn't great but if you look at his attributes there isn't anyone in the field better suited to this type of course. He is so long with his three wood that he only need take the driver out on one or two occasions in a round. If Stenson can find the key to the greens this week he may just run away with this tournament. At current odds of [15.0] he is right at the top of my attack this week.

Next Best Bets

If Stenson has the perfect game for Wentworth then young Martin Kaymer is not too far behind. He is still learning the game and it has been very encouraging to see him in the upper echelons of the leaderboard at tough events in the US recently. I sense a maturity about his game that will make him a devastating player when he puts it all together. For me, Kaymer is a certain future major winner and this week may just be the stepping stone to those greater things. He is currently available at odds of [34.0] and is a must for my staking plan.

The Massive Outsider

With quality fields generally come cracking value outsiders and this week is no exception. We may not have anything on the level of the ridiculously priced Shane Lowry but for anyone sniffing around the 70 to 100 mark there are plenty of opportunities. The first man on your list has to be Thomas Levet. The Frenchman has rediscovered the form that made him a Ryder Cup selection and this game is all about form. He putted poorly last week so his final finishing position of eighth was very impressive. He is full of confidence following his win in Spain a few weeks ago and merits further support this week at attractive odds of [90.0].

Interesting Info

We haven't had a wire to wire winner here since Nick Faldo did it in 1989 so don't get too excited if you hit the front early on. Jose Maria Olazabal and Monty are the two players who have made the most consecutive cuts at this tournament so although they aren't in great nick it may pay to check them out in the To Make The Cut market.

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