Ballantine's Championship Betting: Westwood can soothe the misery of formbook backers

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's been a hard year for favourite-backers so far but the Englishman's perfect iron play could help to soothe those early season losses says Paul Krishnamurty.

As another week goes by, with another two unlikely big-priced winners, I'm struggling to remember a worse year for the formbook and therefore the average punter, let alone favourite backers.

Consider the following stats: of 28 events on either side of the Atlantic so far in 2009, only two favourites have won. One of those was Tiger Woods in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at less than [4.0]; short odds which barely begins to cover the losses. The other was Phil Mickelson, who was vying for favouritism with several others at around [16.0] in the Northern Trust Open. Eleven European Tour events have yet to produce a single winning favourite.

Nor has it just been the favourites missing out - half of those 28 winners started at more than [50.0]. Of course, traders have no right to complain. It's precisely this frequency of big-priced winners that attracts punters to bet on golf, and the pre-tournament odds should have no relevance to the highs and lows of in-running trading. Nevertheless, the wisest strategy of late has clearly been to keep pre-tournament stakes low, and if you are going to play, look for big prices.

At times like this, grim as they are for us formbook students, I always tend to feel that the law of averages should apply. Sooner or later, there's going to be a spate of obvious winners. Could this be the week when those trends turn around?

If the result of last year's inaugural Ballantines Championship is anything to go by, there's every chance. Then, the first two were Graeme McDowell and Jeev-Milkha Singh, who both started as strong contenders around the [28.0] mark. Moreover, all seven players to finish in at least a share of the top-five places started at well under [100.0], including one of the most obvious in Anthony Kim.

With a strong emphasis on high quality approach shots, this venue at Jeju Island, South Korea certainly looks the type to favour the better players. However, I find it hard to fancy the favourite Henrik Stenson, who is currently trading around [12.0]. Stenson is a class act on courses that favour his long-hitting game, but with the rough significantly more penal than last year, I reckon position is going to be much more important than length this time. Last year's result already suggested that the greens in regulation stats were a massive clue towards solving the puzzle, and I can only see that particular discipline being even more important this time around.

If that is the case, then it looks absolutely perfect for Lee Westwood. After a slow start to the season, the world no.15 has very much taken the eye on his last two starts in events that didn't particularly suit his talents. First he finished 11th in the Shell Houston Open, on a course where he'd never previously made the top-40. Following that, Westwood played much better at the Masters than his eventual 43rd position suggests.

His post-round interviews really gave the game away, when he said: "I'll never win at Augusta...my short game isn't good enough".

Nobody is going to win with an attitude like that, and he seemed to lose interest during a miserable final day 79.

Though that attitude left plenty to be desired, it means little as far as this week is concerned. The more interesting clue to take out of those two US events was the fact that Westwood ranked second for greens in regulation in Houston, and sixth at Augusta. A repetition of those stats around this layout would make him a very serious contender, and hard to keep out of the places at least.