Back high, lay low for team golf riches

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty tells us why the matchplay format of team events provides for a trader's paradise

Such has been the extraordinary success of the Ryder Cup that the golf schedulers simply can't get enough of the team matchplay format. This week's pair of events - the Presidents Cup and Seve Trophy - bring the recent tally to four such matches inside the last month. But whereas the Walker and Solheim Cups at least can claim to be the pinnacle of the amateur and ladies' scene, these two events inevitably struggle to capture the imagination in quite the same way as the Ryder Cup.

Nevertheless, as gamblers, what do we care? We still have two competitive punting heats, with dozens of interesting markets and individual matches besides the main battle to win each trophy. A very different set of trading tactics is required from normal though. Rather than calculating all the usual critical factors in strokeplay - tee-time advantages, weather forecasts, easiest and hardest sections of the course - these kind of events are closer in betting terms to other 'two-runner' sports like cricket or tennis. And just as we see regularly in those sports, there is much to be made from employing the simple maxim "Back High, Lay Low".

Historically, few sporting events have produced more volatility and drama than the Ryder Cup. Betfair wasn't around until this century, but if it had then followers of my suggested 'lay the leader' strategy would have profitted handsomely in every match between 1983 and 2002, with both sides trading odds-on at some stage. Of course no strategy is foolproof. In the last two Ryder Cups, Team Europe has swept all before it and never looked like registering anything other than a thumping victory, but these should be seen as mere exceptions to the rule.

Even when the final result is one-sided, tremendous trading opportunities are often available over the course of a match. Take the two recent team events. In the Walker Cup, Europe started as strong favourites with home advantage and traded as low as 1.2 on the first day. As the match progressed, these short odds looked terrible value with the US opening up a four-shot lead ahead of the final day singles. But while the visitors ended up hanging on for victory, a spirited final day comeback kept them sweating and reduced the margin to a single shot. And in the Solheim Cup a fortnight ago, the US started marginal favourites before shortening to 1.18 with more than a day to go. Again the Europeans turned it around, albeit momentarily, with the visitors available to back as high as 1.9 on the final morning.

It may well be that the gradual development of rivalries is the key component in producing these great comebacks and turnarounds. The Presidents Cup took a while to establish itself, but its getting there. Having been forced to play a humiliating second fiddle to the one that really matters, this now offers the Americans their best chance to win some silverware and salvage some pride. Furthermore, the ever increasing competitiveness of the 'International' contingent on the PGA Tour seems to have sharpened the rivalry, with the last two renewals very close. Most memorably four years ago in South Africa, a topsy-turvy final day ended with both teams having to settle for a draw amidst the darkness after Tiger Woods and Ernie Els halved three consecutive sudden-death play-off holes.

Interestingly, while the bigger team events always seem to produce these nail-biting finishes, the comparatively meaningless Seve Trophy remains the one team event yet to produce any real drama. Colin Montgomerie's GB and Ireland side has beaten Seve's continental Europeans on all three occasions, despite there being no great difference in quality between the sides. With both sets of players more accustomed to playing as team-mates for Europe, its harder to manufacture a sense of rivalry and the matches end up as rather friendly affairs.

So while I'll watch and trade both events, the Presidents Cup must take precedence. There seems very little between the two sides, and any hint that the Internationals are slightly inferior should be compensated by 'home' advantage in Canada. Everything points to another close contest that will go down to the very last few singles matches on Sunday night, irrespective of who takes the early lead. And while the Seve Trophy is less inspiring, my instinct is still to either back Seve's outsiders pre-match at around 2.7 or certainly get involved should they drift on the first day. After all, three beatings in a row might be just the incentive they need to make this one competitive for a change.