Australian PGA Betting: Home golfers again the value wagers

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 23 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Geoff Ogilvy is enjoying himself back on home soil

"Geoff Ogilvy's last four finishes at Coolum include nothing worse than eighth, and having finished as joint top-scorer for the Internationals last week, is clearly in good form. Again, his place odds represent excellent value."

Paul Krishnamurty nailed it with his tips for the first leg of the Australian Triple Crown and now turns his attentions to Part II where a clutch of very solid Aussies once again represent the best betting propositions in the field

This week sees leg two of the Australian Triple Crown, and given that my tried and trusted strategy for these events reaped dividends at the Open, I see no good reason to change course.

Briefly, lets reiterate the plan and reason behind it. Year in, year out, the cream rises to the top in these Aussie events, for two particular reasons. Firstly, there just isn't anywhere near the strength in depth that we see in standard PGA or European Tour events. Whereas usually at least 100 players are capable of reaching the top-ten, the figure on the lower tours is probably less than 40. Calculations can effectively be reduced to no more than a couple of dozen Aussies with high-class overseas experience; any particularly in-form Australasian Tour players and a handful of visiting stars.

More significant is the nature of the courses. All the big events in Australia are played on classic, championship courses. Unless it rains, they are guaranteed to play very firm and fast, placing severe pressure on every aspect of the game. Anyone struggling for accuracy off the tee or with their irons, or whose short games aren't up to scratch, will inevitably run up a stack of bogeys. That cannot be said, for instance, of a typical American target golf course with receptive greens, where a bad iron shot merely means a less plausible birdie putt, rather than an almost guaranteed bogey.

These trends are well borne out by the stats. Every single PGA Championship since the 1970s has been won by someone with obvious claims. This century, Robert Allenby and Peter Lonard won seven PGAs between them, while Geoff Ogilvy and Nick O'Hern have one win apiece. Even a very rare shock champion, like Peter Senior last year, was a course specialist. Moreover, virtually every player that contented for these events and earned places, met the aforementioned criteria.

Given that Coolum is the long-standing host, providing a vast bank of past course form, the PGA is the most predictable among these very predictable series of triple-crown events. Nobody exemplifies the point better than the duo that did us proud at The Lakes - Nick O'Hern and John Senden. In eight PGA appearances here, Nick has registered six top-eight finishes and nothing worse than 20th. In addition to winning the 2006 renewal, O'Hern's maiden title came at the Coolum Classic back in 1999. Equally, while Senden has never won here, his course form claims are indisputable, with top-ten finishes on five of his last six attempts.

Clearly the place odds about this pair, are way out of line with the likelihood of success, begging the question why. The only explanation can be that layers calculate place odds at a typical percentage of the win price, irrespective of the wider conditions. So in a field which includes players much superior on the world stage - Adam Scott, Jason Day, Geoff Ogilvy, not to mention visiting Americans Bubba Watson and Rickie Fowler - relative journeymen like O'Hern and Senden will only ever trade so short.

However, whereas I couldn't be more confident about my two main picks, question marks surround many of their 'superiors'. Scott may be the best of these internationally, but Coolum has rarely looked his course, as illustrated by only two top-tens from seven tries, never better than sixth. Day was appalling at the Presidents Cup, and therefore looks a risky proposition at a short price. It is hard to make a case for Bubba, on a course where driving distance offers no advantage, and accuracy is the key.

The only 'big-gun' that appeals is last year's runner-up and 2008 champ Ogilvy. Geoff's last four finishes at Coolum include nothing worse than eighth, and having finished as joint top-scorer for the Internationals last week, is clearly in good form. Again, his place odds represent excellent value.

Finally, some bigger-priced alternatives. Andre Stolz was a big disappointment at the Australian Open, but this former European and PGA Tour winner may yet make his mark this winter. Stolz was third in this last year, has since been very consistent on the Asian Tour since, and was runner-up on his penultimate start at the New South Wales Open.

And defending champ Senior may not be getting any younger, but remains competitive on the Champions Tour. His lack of power is no disadvantage around a short track like Coolum, and course form is exemplary, with five top-tens, including two wins here since 1998.

Recommended Bets
10u Nick O'Hern top-ten finish @ [2.4]
10u John Senden top-ten finish @ [2.3]
5u Nick O'Hern top-five finish @ [4.6]
3u Peter Senior top-ten finish @ [8.0]
5u John Senden top-five finish @ [4.3]
5u Geoff Ogilvy top-five finish @ [2.9]
2u Andre Stolz top-five finish @ [15.5]