Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

Tiger is [3.8] to win the Australian Masters and with only nine members of the world's top 200 in the field, he must be value to win, right? No, says Paul Krishnamurty. Here's why...

As the variety of opinions regularly expressed by Betfair writers illustrates, there are few more divisive issues in golf betting than the post-scandal Tiger Woods, and his claims as [3.8] favourite for this week's Australian Masters present the ultimate punting dilemma. This event, albeit on a different course, provided his last win a year ago, just days before his life and career hit troubled waters. This time around, it represents easily his best chance since, as those skinny odds imply.

Like all the best betting conundrums, there is plenty of merit for each side of the argument. On the one hand, nobody in their right mind would argue that he is back to anywhere near the dominant level shown over the past decade. There have been signs of improvement - in the Ryder Cup singles, or Sunday's closing 68 at Sheshan - but there are still far too many mistakes. Moreover, he just doesn't cut the same intimidating figure on the course these days. On various occasions this year, he's been well positioned yet completely failed to deliver. At his peak, that happened very rarely. Now it seems the norm.

For all those criticisms though, almost any other player would envyTiger's record in 2010. This 'disastrous' season has seen Woods make the top-five in both the Masters and US Open, and he's currently on a run of four straight top-15s in elite tournaments. Even with an erratic long game, his genius scrambling abilities enable him to get the very most out of his round.

Given the weakness of this line-up and nature of Victoria GC, Melbourne, that may be enough. There are only nine members of the world's top-200 in this field, and several of them are badly out of form. Woods is joined by fellow overseas stars Camilo Villegas and Sergio Garcia; neither of whom has been anywhere near their best of late. In fact, beyond Aussie stars Robert Allenby and Geoff Ogilvy, it is hard to make a form case for anyone.

The course should also play to Tiger's strengths. These Aussie sandbelt venues are some of the world's finest, and tend to be dominated by the best ball-strikers and short-game exponents. Usually in these triple-crown events, the field finishes well strung out with very predictable leaderboards, for two reasons.

Firstly, the Australasian Tour lacks strength in depth, particularly this week with at least a dozen regulars opting to play the Fall Series finale instead. Secondly these courses, with their fast running fairways and greens, expose any shortcomings in a player's game. Weekend storms could exaggerate those differences between the best and the rest. Luckily Woods, who hasn't been reliable off the tee for ages, won't need to use his driver very often at Victoria. He could win this with his B or even C game.

Nevertheless, betting is about finding value and I simply cannot manufacture an argument that says [3.8] about a player who hasn't won for a year represents value. Rather, we should be thankful for Tiger's presence in this line-up as it has pushed out the odds of a very obvious candidate. The best pick for my money is Melbourne sandbelt specialist Allenby, who has repeatedly shown himself to be top dog in his homeland.

Allenby has enjoyed a better season than Tiger, and has been extremely unlucky not to win. He's twice finished second, defied by brilliant final day performances by Ryan Palmer in the Sony Open and to Tim Clark at Sawgrass, when tipped in my Find Me A 100 Winner column at [130.0]strong>. In total he has ten top-tens this year, compared to Tiger's three, and has twice made the top-five in his his last four events. He is an outstanding 'bad weather player', arguably better than Woods in high winds.

One would expect Allenby to step up on that US form back on home soil, where his record is truly outstanding. In 26 Australian tournaments this century, he's won seven times, registered a further six top-fours, and made the top-ten 17 times. Pretty much all of those fields had greater strength in depth than this one. He knows Victoria GC inside out, and has never finished worse than eighth there. I strongly recommend backing him to win, make the top-five and as outsider in a match bet against Tiger.

Recommended Bets:
Robert Allenby to win @ [10.5]
Robert Allenby to make the top-five @ [3.0]
Robert Allenby to beat Tiger Woods in tournament matchbet @ [2.6]

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