Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 04 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Mickelson's win gives everyone a jolt - including Big Phil, says pro-punter Paul Krishnamurty

The marketing hype surrounding the new Fedex Cup schedule has been telling us for months that "things will never be the same again". But when the star attraction Tiger Woods opted out of last week's opening play-off event, the sponsors must have worried it could become a damp squib, albeit an extremely lucrative one. One week on though, and the changes are beginning to look inspired, with a thrilling finish in store and the potential of a dream shoot-out between Woods and the new points leader, Phil Mickelson.

The most compelling argument in favour was the effect it would have on players' schedules. Not only have we seen fields with greater strength in depth than usual in run-of-the-mill events throughout the summer, but we may see more dividends when the main US season winds down in a couple of weeks. The sizeable European contingent will doubtless relocate to their home tour for a number of lucrative autumn events, and even the odd American might choose to spend some of their four-month season break playing outside their own continent.

Nobody has reacted more positively to the new schedule than that most homespun of Americans, Phil Mickelson. In previous seasons, Mickelson has wound down into holiday mode for the remainder of the year after the last Major. Last night's win at TPC Boston was only the second time he'd won after August, coming hot on the heels of a much improved effort at Westchester. Having lost the best part of the summer to injury, the Fedex Cup race has given him fresh impetus.

Re-setting the points table before the play-offs to give everyone a chance of winning the title has proved a masterstroke. In the decade since Woods arrived, the old Money List had become disinteresting from both a golfing and betting perspective. Occasionally one player has emerged to give Woods a serious challenge for the title, but Tiger usually had it wrapped up by the summer and it was never more than a two-runner affair. At the start of the four-week play-offs, any of the 125 qualifiers could still quite plausibly win the $10M bonus. With two to go, over 30 still retain a mathematical chance though the odds are that the winner will come from the current top five.

Mickelson could wrap it up early if he wins this week's BMW Championship but if any of the next four can win at Cog Hill they will probably overtake Big Phil. There are over 10,000 points available for winning the final Tour Championship, so anybody within that margin of the lead after Sunday still has a chance.

Despite their dominance in the betting, this is more than just Woods versus Mickelson. In fact, I was delighted to lay Tiger at 1.66 to win the Fedex Cup over the weekend, though I notice he has been matched even lower at 1.4.

Closing out now at 1.8 is not a strategy that appeals to me given his 5,000 point deficit. Much depends on Cog Hill this week, a course where Woods has won three times from nine attempts though not since 2003 and never against a field of this depth. Tiger certainly looks beatable in the final, decisive play-off event at a course where he has never won, East Lake.

Mickelson's record at Cog Hill is poor but he did win the 2000 Tour Championship at East Lake. It's no foregone conclusion that Woods will amass the minimum 6,000 points he would need to win the race even if Mickelson were to have two poor tournaments, nor is the current leader certain to gain enough points to fend off any late charge from one of the other chasers. If any one of Steve Stricker, KJ Choi or Rory Sabbatini could win either of these final two events they would set a tough target and have odds-on backers reaching for the bottle.

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