Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 March 2011 /

The former world no.1 has undoubtedly lost some of the sheen but there are signs that he's approaching something like good form, and on a course where he has won six times, and at a near double figure price, he is a good bet

It is hard to recall a tougher period for golf punters than this current US schedule. Leaving aside the WGC events and the small-field curtain-raiser in Hawaii, all ten PGA Tour winners begun the week at over [100.0]. Worse, those odds applied to eight out of last week's top-ten, including the first four home. In order to turn it around, what we need is a sure-thing, a reliable world-class favourite. Basically, what we need is for the real Tiger Woods to finally stand up.

Historically, this has been one of the easiest events of the year, a golden opportunity to fill our boots backing the game's best player on one of his favourite course. Tiger has won six times from ten Bay Hill appearances this century. This will be his first visit to Arnold Palmer's famous venue since his personal life unravelled. With the Masters just a fortnight away and Woods' golfing reputation dropping like a stone, he urgently needs to restate his claims.

Backing Tiger this week involves reversing an opinion I've held consistently since last summer. When he returned, I was determined to give Woods the benefit of the doubt, and the early signs were promising. Considering he was nowhere near his best, top-fives in the Masters and US Open were exceptional results.

As the year drew on though, it became clearer that he was a diminished figure on the golf course. Even when winning chances presented themselves, such as at his own Chevron World Challenge tournament, he flunked it. Tiger's demeanour on the course has been unrecognisable from the all-conquering figure of old, and on occasion his struggles have made for difficult viewing. So far as punting is concerned, he has repeatedly made for an excellent opening lay at odds that reflected his reputation, rather than the formbook.

It is against this backdrop that Woods' [9.8] odds need to be measured. His chance is clearly not the same as when we were queuing up to take quotes far shorter than [4.0] at Bay Hill. There are, however, three reasons that make me think this is as good a time as any to afford the greatest player of all time one more chance.

Firstly there's the course, as illustrated by that amazing record. Woods hasn't even needed to be at his best to win here in the past. His last Bay Hill victory in 2009 was typical. Merely Tiger's presence on the final day leaderboard was enough to strike fear into the leaders, and he duly overhauled a substantial deficit to catch Sean O'Hair. It may well be that, now everyone has seen his fallibility, he no longer generates that fear. Nevertheless, if he is in contention over the weekend. Tiger will be the centre of attention, and the market will certainly respect his chances. It won't take all that much for his odds to shorten up.

Secondly, there were clear signs of improvement last time, finishing tenth in the elite WGC-CA Championship and saving his best round for Sunday. Arguably of greater significance was the fact he ranked fourth for greens in regulation - the key stat for assessing the health of somebody's long game. In previous months, his gir stats had been appalling, whereas at his peak, Woods usually topped those rankings.

Thirdly, there aren't too many terrifying opponents in a tournament that usually goes to a big name - 16 of the last 25 Bay Hill winners were major champions. His great rival Phil Mickelson is badly out of form and only one of the current top-four lines up at Bay Hill, Graeme McDowell. Defending champion Ernie Els cannot be trusted over a putt.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting Tiger is truly back to his best, but this is a plausible first step. Even if he never regains the forces of old, Woods remains a top-class player who will win from time to time. Despite struggling to find his best, Tiger has only missed one cut in 17 post-scandal strokeplay starts, registering 11 top-20 finishes. All bar a few elite players would be happy with an equivalent record. He's bound to win eventually, and given that love for Bay Hill, this is as likely week as any.

Recommended Bet:
Tiger Woods @ [9.8]

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