Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 December 2009 /

It pains Paul Krishnamurty to say it, but Ernie Els is shaping up as the lay of the century at the Alfred Dunhill Championship

If the saying 'form is temporary, class is permanent' usually shows itself to be true, the same cannot be said of 'bottle'. Sunday's golf offered a painful illustration, when Retief Goosen shot a miserable final round 75 to blow yet another lead - the sixth time he's thrown away final day favouritism in six months. Not so long ago, Goosen would have been a strong candidate for the accolade of 'best temperament in golf'. He seemed utterly nerveless under pressure and won several times from the front. Now, the twice former US Open champion is fast becoming a figure of ridicule; the man layers most want to get after at a short price.

Another former US Open champion who has begun to invite plenty of ridicule is Goosen's old mate Ernie Els. It was two years ago at this week's venue, Leopard Creek, that a final hole disaster from Els sparked one of the great turnarounds in Betfair history. Available to lay for chunks at [1.01], with clubhouse leader and eventual winner John Bickerton around the [250.0] mark, Ernie shot an unbelievable triple-bogey on the final hole after twice finding the water. Stuff happens, of course, and the immediate temptation was to write it off as a freak occurrence. But it's happened so many times now that its become impossible to deny the fact; Ernie has lost his bottle.

Actually, it wasn't the first time. Early in his career, the Racing Post columnist Derek McGovern caused a minor stir by claiming Ernie was a bottler, much to the annoyance of his legion of fans like me. Ernie resoundingly disproved the charge by winning three majors and six world matchplay titles, but in truth, he's never won as many as he should. In many respects, he was the heir to Greg Norman.

As he's got older though, the poor finishes have become more frequent. There have been so many instances now that its been hard to keep count. He's blown the Dubai Desert Classic at least twice down the stretch under pressure from Tiger. There was an out-of-bounds drive on one of the widest 18th fairways in the world at Kapalua, home to the Mercedes Championship. Most recently, he threw away a golden opportunity in the HSBC Champions Trophy by finding the water on the par-5 18th. It was a truly depressing finish to a magnificent last round.

It breaks my heart to write this as there is no greater Els fan than me. As well as his golfing brilliance, likeable persona and the fact he's a great ambassador for the game, the Big Easy has done me so many favours in so many markets throughout his career. And while he's not quite as good as his major-winning peak, Ernie can still contend in any company at his best. Despite the reservations, I'd still be prepared to back him each-way at a decent price on the right kind of golf course.

But that isn't what we are being offered this week, with Els starting the Alfred Dunhill Championship at a miserly [7.0]. Of course, there is some logic behind the price. At no.17 in the world rankings, he is over 30 places ahead of anyone else in this field. As well as the one that got away in 2007, he won at Leopard Creek in 2005 and has never been outside the top-10 here. That performance in the HSBC Champions Trophy is a better level of form than anything anyone else in this field can offer.

Betting is all about the price though and this is a very bad one. We are asked to take [7.0] about a man who has won only twice in his last 107 tournaments, and none of the 47 since March 2008. For me, irrespective of the personal affiliation, the only questions are when to lay and for how much. Given his market dominance, it's easy to envisage him shortening to below [3.0] with a good start. And if he's in the lead on Sunday, we can expect to see him trading at short odds-on. So my lay strategy will be in three stages, starting from now.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: