Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 13 January 2009 /

Garcia v Harrington is just one of the sub-plots of an impressive looking tournament in the desert. Paul Krishnamurty looks at this weekend's big tournament on the European Tour.

Looking through the respective fields for this week's events, it's safe to say that the days of Europe playing second fiddle to the PGA Tour are history. Whereas last week's affair in Johannesburg represented a low-key start to the new year, the Abu Dhabi Championship offers a perfect illustration of the shift in golfing and commercial power.

There was much discussion on Setanta last week about the effect of the global economic crisis on the PGA Tour. It isn't just that corporate America is in the midst of a crisis like it's never experienced before, but PGA Tour events are particularly vulnerable, with numerous tournaments sponsored by financial services and car manufacturers. European sponsors are hardly free of worries, but the long-term strategy of expanding the Tour beyond mainland Europe has proved a masterstroke. If there's one part of the world that looks relatively unaffected by the global recession, it's the oil states of the Middle East.

Clearly the Race to Dubai matters. Besides almost all the top players in Europe, the sponsors have also been able to attract top PGA Tour stars such as Aaron Baddeley, Robert Allenby and Rod Pampling, all of whom have played this week's PGA event, the Sony Open, in years gone by. Expect to see more overseas stars in the forthcoming 'Middle East Swing' events.

The opening event of that swing also offers a chance to assess the prospects of the two leading European players, Sergio Garcia and Padraig Harrington. With Tiger Woods out injured, and not 100% certain to return to his invincible best immediately, the form of Europe's finest takes on extra significance. With the possible exception of Phil Mickelson, nobody is better placed to take advantage. Henrik Stenson actually starts favourite ahead of the pair in Abu Dhabi, but while he is a respected world-class player, this week's market prominence owes more to his fine previous form in the desert than any outlandish claims to be European No.1.

It is quite feasible that Garcia will soon achieve something that we'd all considered impossible - overhauling Woods as World No.1. All will depend on the timing of Tiger's return, with his points tally depreciating every week he remains inactive. Were Garcia to get the year off to a flyer by winning in Abu Dhabi, this feat would become much more plausible. Having established himself as the next best, or at least the next most consistent, in the second half of the year, its no surprise to see Sergio starting in single figures at [9.2]. His case is also strengthened by a previous third place on this course in 2006. However, given Garcia's history of poor putting and weak finishing I can't have him at this price.

Abu Dhabi is all about low-scoring; reminiscent of the type of target golf, putting contests that we've seen so often in the US over the years. While I respect Garcia's quite magnificent long game - which has been as good as Tiger's for some time now in my view - I'd never take a short price about him on this type of course. A brutal US or British Open venue perhaps, but not one that requires him to repeatedly hole birdie putts.

Presumably because he has been considerably less consistent, Harrington starts at the much more reasonable price of [13.5]. At his best, Pod has already proven he has Garcia's number, breaking the Spaniard's heart at the 2007 Open and 2008 PGA. The fact is, as winner of three of the last six Majors including the last two, while Harrington may have no such ambitions to take the No.1 slot any time soon, he stands on the verge of legendary status. Were he to win the Masters in April, let alone emulate Woods' unprecedented achievement of four consecutive major titles by adding the US Open as well, Harrington would just as much deserve the title of Tiger's main rival.

In reality, Harrington's erratic form outside the Majors wasn't entirely unpredictable. He's on record as admitting that his schedule and preparation revolves around the big four tournaments of the year, and frankly he looked disinterested in most events after the PGA. The key to backing Harrington, therefore, is to work out when he's likely to be fully motivated and carrying his 'A-game'. His comments ahead of Abu Dhabi make very interesting reading on this front, with the Irishman telling europeantour.com.

"I like the course and I do feel it's one I'm competitive on. I am focusing hard on my preparation and I think I'll be ready with my 'A' game. This year I'll be good to go."

As he'd played well on this course before, finishing fifth and 11th on two previous visits, Harrington was already on my short-list. After comments like that, I need no more convincing.

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