Betfair Official Blog

A journeyman for the US and a world-beater for the European Tour

Click here to view market

Betfair's golf-man TQ runs through his ante-post selections on this week's big two tournaments...

A stretch of Florida known as Treasure Coast is the setting for the Ginn sur Mer Classic this week, but who will be sailing off with the booty? It is yet another new event on tour, and was only scheduled in June to replace the Running Horse tournament, which had to be cancelled due to course construction problems.

At over 7,380 yards this Arnold Palmer designed course is one of the longest on the schedule, and should provide a suitably tough test for the 132-strong field. It will pay to approach this event with an air of caution, as the limited course form and time of year make pre-tournament predictions a difficult process, though not an impossible one. When studying potential winning players' profiles, look for someone who will be playing without pressure. Discard all competitors fighting for their card and any players who are in the top fifty in the money list, as the chances are they will have gone off the boil after their Fed Ex exertions. Tiredness is most certainly a factor at this stage of the season, and another key stat to look at is the amount of events played. Look for a player who has competed in no more than 26 or 27 events. Check out these stats on the PGA Tour website www.pgatour.com/r/stats/2007/109.html

With the relevant information at hand you can now make an informed decision. With many of the market leaders dismissed, it is in the next section of runners that you will find the likely winner. My eye is immediately drawn to Bart Bryant - this three-time tour winner clearly has the ability to win an event of this nature. Sitting comfortably at 82nd in the money list and relatively lightly raced, he will come into the event with no pressure. Should he get into contention he will be a danger to all, and anything around 65 represents good value.

Another interesting option in the Ginn sur Mer tournament is the Top European market. A large Swedish contingent dominates, but the stand-out bet is Englishman Brian Davis. A strong showing last week on the back of a very consistent season makes him a strong fancy to come out top of the European's this week. With three top ten finishes already this season, I would also advise following him in the Top 10 Finish market.

It pays to follow trends, and whether you decide to get involved early on in the tournament or wait until the later stages, the one thing you can't ignore is the poor record of final round leaders on the PGA Tour this season. Only 14 times in 44 events (three of them from Tiger) have leading or co-leading players going into the final round gone on to win. This is a telling statistic that shouldn't be ignored, and come Sunday I suggest a lay of the leader and watch him get swallowed up by the pack.

Over in Europe the Pula GC plays host to the Mallorca Classic for the fifth time. Looking back over the previous four runnings of the event, two things stand out. Firstly, the course is difficult, and secondly, only top-draw players have succeeded here. A roll of honour consisting of Fasth, Garcia, Olazabal and Jimenez suggests to me that this course requires a level of skill that few in this field are capable of mustering.

Sergio's presence at the tournament adds a touch of class, and although it may not take much imagination to predict, I cannot see past the mercurial Spaniard for this event. The harder the course the better for Garcia, as it places less pressure on his putting and the need to get birdies. At prohibitive odds of around 5.7 it may not be everyone's idea of value, but nonetheless a player of Sergio's ability merits that price and a pre-tournament investment will reap dividends come Sunday afternoon.

Its mid-October and the golfing season is still in full swing. This week's winners will need to be hardened tour players who can turn up with their A-game at any given point during the season. Next week's Volvo Masters is the final event of the 2007 season on the European Tour but amazingly the very next week sees the start of the 2008 season. Does the season last too long now? Is the amount of events on tour resulting in far too many mediocre tournaments? This is certainly a topic that will be debated by many golf fans over the coming weeks