WGC-CA Championship Update and 2-Ball Betting: Back in-form Camillo to beat the defending champ

Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 13 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Camillo Villegas is a good selection against the out-of-sorts Phil Mickelson in their two-ball

"Nevertheless, man of the moment Camilo Villegas looks good value at around [2.4] to beat the defending champion, who only arrived in Miami the night before the first round and hasn't looked in top form."

Paul Krishnamurty wonders if Ernie Els can last the distance on a course where he's won before and gives us three selections on the two-balls, including siding with colourful Columbian Camillo Villegas to out-score Phil Mickelson.

Whatever his wider major-winning profile, backers of Ernie Els could be forgiven for feeling a little edgy about their man's prospects over the weekend. The Big Easy holds the halfway lead at Doral, a course where he's won previously, but has a point to prove after bottling numerous golden opportunities in the two years since landing his last title.

Most recently, Ernie dumped his second shot in the water at the final hole when holding the lead in another WGC event, the HSBC Champions Trophy. He also blew a tournament at Doral in similar style back in the 1990s on the final hole, and layers will be well aware of the constant threat of a watery grave here at the 'Blue Monster'.

In fact, everything we've seen so far suggests there is great scope for a dramatic turnaround on the leaderboard. There are eagle and double-bogey possibilites alike all over this course, as second-placed Robert Allenby's card illustrates. The Aussie's nine under tally is comprised of three eagles (including a hole-in-one), twelve birdies, seven bogies and a double.

When scoring is like that, things can change very quickly. It would be no surprise to see one of the chasing pack make four or five early birdies to overhaul the front-two, and equally the numerous classy players currently seven or eight back shouldn't give up just yet. When we last saw a rain-soaked Doral two years ago, the result was a bunch finish.

If I were starting a new book at this point, I would be recommending bets on Soren Hansen and JB Holmes, but seeing as they've both already been advised http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/wgc-ca-championship-update-four-in-running-trades-120310.html there seems little point in adding to the outright portfolio before Sunday. Instead, I'm having three 2-ball bets.

This could be quite a gruelling weekend, with plenty of scope for further delays. It isn't going to be much fun for those struggling or out of contention, and for that reason I'm taking on a couple of potential non-triers. Sergio Garcia is particularly unreliable in that respect, and hasn't been enjoying the event so far. The emphasis on low-scoring is anything but ideal for this weak putter. In contrast, today's (outsider) opponent Anders Hansen has no such issues on the motivation front.

Historically, Phil Mickelson has been one to oppose when out of contention, though to be fair he could still take a hand in this event. Nevertheless, man of the moment Camilo Villegas looks good value at around [2.4] to beat the defending champion, who only arrived in Miami the night before the first round and hasn't looked in top form.

With the course soaked, greater driving distance through the air will be a significant advantage. That could make Adam Scott a nice bet at around [1.9] to beat the short-hitting Brian Gay, against whom he can expect to be enjoying at least a 20 yard advantage so long as he hits the fairway. Gay has never thrived at this course, making the top-30 only once in eight attempts, whereas Scott made the top-ten in those similarly wet conditions two years ago.

2-Ball Selections

14.55 Anders Hansen @ [2.5] (vs Garcia)
16.15 Adam Scott @ [1.9] (vs Gay)
17.45 Camilo Villegas @ [2.4] (vs Mickelson)