Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 February 2012 /

We're down to the last 16 at Dove Mountain, and Paul Krishnamurty has decided that backing desert specialists and old heads is the passport to making a profit.

Outright

2u John Senden @ [28.0]
2u Paul Lawrie @ [28.0]

The first couple of days at Dove Mountain have been hard work for punters, with 22 matches out of 48 going to the outsider. There are still a few 'big guns' left in, but apart from a high-class quartet left in the Ben Hogan bracket, it is perfectly plausible that rank outsiders could fill three of the final four places.

With that distinct possibility in mind, today's advice is to back a couple of those outsiders, still at decent prices, ahead of very winnable last-16 matches, in the hope that they progress and other results open up the draw for them.

First, John Senden is recommended in both the outright market, and to justify favouritism against the week's biggest surprise package. Sang-Moon Bae has ruined many an outright portfolio by eliminating Ian Poulter and Charl Schwartzel, but I feel his luck may run out now. Even after finishing superbly against Schwartzel, Bae's score over the two rounds is only -2, compared to -6 for Senden. Indeed, the Aussie couldn't have racked up a much more impressive card, needing just 28 holes to eliminate Simon Dyson and Jason Day.

His [28.0] odds are a consequence of sharing the same bracket as Rory McIlroy, but as I'll explain shortly, the tournament favourite has a tricky match to negotiate before meeting the winner of Senden's match. In any case, the Ritz-Carlton is far from an easy course, and Senden's trademark accuracy will make him tough for anyone to beat around here.

Without wishing to aftertime, I've been kicking myself for ignoring Paul Lawrie at a very big price pre-tournament. Here is a bang-in-form desert golf specialist, runaway winner of the recent Qatar Masters, in the easiest eighth of the draw. Moreover, those with long memories will recall that Lawrie has some matchplay pedigree.

An abiding memory of the Scotsman's career was his heroics in the 1999 Ryder Cup, when finishing as joint top European scorer, and Lawrie also gave Tiger Woods a tough match in the quarter-finals of this event back in 2000. He's arguably never been in better form than now, and has nothing to fear against Martin Laird.

Matches

3u Martin Kaymer @ [1.83] (vs Kuchar) (Starts 17:50)

A hat-trick of victories in Abu Dhabi and a run to last year's final arguably qualify Martin Kaymer as the world's leading exponent of desert golf, so it's slightly surprising to see these odds available for a match against a player who, whilst respected, is inferior on the world stage. Kaymer has done nothing wrong so far, and despite being drawn in a competitive section, will take plenty of stopping over the weekend. That isn't to say Matt Kuchar will be a pushover, but amongst a series of tricky ties, this looks one of the better bets.

3u Miguel-Angel Jimenez @ [3.0] (vs Rory McIlroy) (Starts 18:38)

As this week's results illustrate, you won't go far wrong backing every outsider in the lottery of 18-hole matchplay, and this match-up looks a classic example of being closer than the odds suggest. McIlroy is of course vastly superior on the wider world stage than Miguel-Angel Jimenez, but has yet to prove he's mastered the art of matchplay.

McIlroy missed plenty of fairways and offered plenty of chances to inferior opponents in the first couple of rounds - a repeat of which could be disastrous against an experienced, classy campaigner like Jimenez. Having claimed the notable scalps of Sergio Garcia and Keegan Bradley so far, the Spaniard has good reason to fancy his chances of a second consecutive quarter-final appearance at Dove Mountain.

6u John Senden @ [1.8] (vs Sang-Moon Bae) (Starts 19.14)

See above

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