Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 30 October 2009 /

There are some very tough match-ups in Spain tomorrow and Paul Krishnamurty will be seeking to back outsiders in what are likely to be a pair of tight deciders

Robert Allenby @ [2.2] (vs Anthony Kim)

The first of the 36-hole semi-finals sees a re-run of one of the singles matches from last month's Presidents Cup. On that occasion, Kim ran out a resounding winner over Robert Allenby, but I'll be surprised if its so one-sided this time. In fact, while I'm loath to go against Kim, who was one of my pre-tournament tips, I've decided to bank my profits from that trading strategy.

We've seen both sides of the mercurial Kim this week. He was the star of day one, trouncing Paul Casey and Retief Goosen to set up what appeared to be an unassailable lead in Group A. But that was before a disjointed, nervy performance in the group decider, when the young American very nearly threw away that lead to rank outsider Scott Strange. As it turned out, a spectacular 275 yard approach to eight feet on the final hole saved Kim's bacon, reminding us in the process just why many were labelling him the 'next Tiger Woods' not so long ago.

He'll need to be much more consistent to deal with Allenby though. The Australian's reputation as a formidable head-to-head performer goes before him; earned by winning ten of 11 career play-offs. Though not the greatest putter, the Aussie is sure to be relentlessly hitting greens in regulation. I think that consistency will earn a few easily won holes against Kim, and really put the pressure on. To be fair, we saw with yesterday's finish that Kim can thrive in such situations himself, but as the outsider of two at [2.2], Allenby looks better value.


Ross Fisher @ [2.1] vs Angel Cabrera

As in the first semi-final, this one looks an extremely tight affair. Both are well suited to matchplay; Cabrera reaching the final of the last world matchplay at Wentworth; Fisher reaching the semis of this year's WGC Matchplay. Just two places separate them in the world rankings, and the same in the Race to Dubai, with Fisher slightly ahead in both.

If pushed, I'd say Cabrera's golf has been slightly superior over the first two days. It's impossible to be 100% accurate when calculating round totals in matchplay, but on the scores awarded after concessions, the Argentinian holds a two stroke advantage. None of these minor differentials are enough to form a solid argument in favour of either player in a match that will come down to performance on the day.

So while it's hard to form a confident opinion, it's probably best to back the outsider of two. Beside the fact he's the bigger price, a further factor to support Fisher may be the nature of the Finca Cortesin course. Everyone seems agreed that its a very gruelling walk, and these 36-hole matches could become a stamina test. If that's the case then the younger, and probably fitter man might enjoy an advantage.

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