Golf Bets / Mike Norman / 07 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's not just football and reality TV that "Mystical" Mike Norman knows a thing or two about, he's also a lover of all things golf - and when it comes to the European Tour there's hardly a soul in the world that watches more coverage.

From the ridiculous to the sublime; that's how I'd describe the switch from last week's Dunhill Championship in windswept Scotland to this week's Madrid Masters at the Centro Nacional de Golf in Sunny Spain.

Birdies will be on the agenda once play starts on Thursday, as the course allows for low scoring for anyone finding the generously wide fairways. However, accuracy from the tee will be crucial with a number of holes being guarded by water and the rough around the Centro Nacional tending to be very punishing.

It's relatively easy to dismiss the chances this week of some of the star names that contested in Scotland, especially the likes of Darren Clarke ([44.0] to win here) and Paul McGinley ([85.0]). Their lofty finishing positions were much down to the fact that they play links courses - especially in windy conditions - so well, and now back on a level playing field - on a birdie buffet style golf course - their limitations will be cruelly exposed.

Conversely then, the performances of Rafael Cabrera-Bello ([30.0]), Ricardo Gonzalez ([50.0]), Jose Manuel Lara ([60.0]), and to a lesser extent Luke Donald ([17.5]) last week have to be upgraded. Now on a golf course that will suit their game much better, they can be expected to be in contention throughout if having their golf swing buffeted around in high winds, and having to play on Monday, hasn't affected their game.

But my main selections this week are Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano ([40.0]) and the huge hitting Alvaro Quiros ([38.0]) - two Spaniards that will be desperate to do well in front of their home crowd.

Fernandez-Castano hasn't been in great form of late and missed the cut in Scotland last week, but the advantage there is that he's been back in Spain much earlier than his compatriots and my spies tell me he's been burning up the course in his practice rounds.

Quiros on the other hand did stay in Scotland to conclude his tournament on Monday, but he was well out of contention on the final day and hopefully that extra stay won't have taken much out of him. The reachable Par 5s will be at his mercy this week (so too will be the short Par 4s) and as long as Quiros can keep his ball on the short stuff, then he simply has to go well in his homeland.

Obviously the likes of tournament favourite Sergio Garcia ([9.0]) and previous course winner Charl Schwartzel ([24.0]) should be high on the leaderboard, but at their respective prices they can be reluctantly dismissed in the Winner market.

In the opening day 3-balls Miguel Angel Jiminez looks an outstanding selection at [2.26] to outscore Louis Oosthuizen ([2.94]) and Niclas Fasth ([3.05]).

Apart from a 5th place finish at the Austrian Open, Oosthuizen has been woefully out of form in recent months, whilst Fasth has only shown glimpses of the form he was in three years ago. Jiminez is an outstanding competitor and a very consistent one, and rather like my main selections, he will be desperate to do well on home soil.

Best Bets

0.5 pts win Alvaro Quiros @ [38.0] in Winner market
0.5 pts win Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [40.0] in Winner market
3 pts win Miguel Angel Jiminez @ [2.26] in First Round 3 Balls

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