Golf Bets / Mike Norman / 13 January 2010 /

"Mystical" Mike Norman is ruing the fact that he dismissed Charl Schwartzel last week, but he's keeping the faith with a Swede that produced a fantastic final three rounds and a Frenchman that is bordering on 'irritating'.

I have to say that this time of the year is without doubt the most difficult for predicting winners of golf tournaments; which makes it all the more annoying then that the favourite (and highest ranked player on show) won last week's tournament whilst going un-backed by yours truly.

It's even more annoying that in the tournament immediately preceding last week's Africa Open I put up Charl Schwartzel ([10.5] to win this week) as my selection. So if ignoring him last week in a much weaker field was my first mistake, then dismissing his chances on these pages was definitely my second. I'll try not to make any similar errors in the future - dismissing someone's chances on the back of one poor showing that is.

Which brings us nicely onto this week's Joburg Open, and more importantly Michael Lorenzo-Vera and Fredrik Andersson Hed.

Lorenzo-Vera is becoming yet another irritating Frenchman in this world. He had a terrific start last week, getting to six under par with a few birdie opportunities ahead of him. But that was as good as it got, a final hole bogie in round one was followed by a poor second round and he eventually missed the cut by a single stroke. I'm refusing to give up hope however, as I believe this week's much longer course will be in his favour as it will put more emphasis on driving and approach play as opposed to last week's target golf stroke putting competition.

Lorenzo-Vera is available to back at [100.00] in the Winner market and I believe he is worth a small wager. I won't be following him off a cliff however so this is perhaps his last chance.

Andersson Hed has to be given another chance also. He started last week's tournament in horrible fashion, carding a one over par 74 on day one. From that moment on though he was arguably the best golfer on show. In fact his final three rounds total of 15 shots under par (66, 68, 70) was only bettered by one player in the field - Australia's Rick Kulacz (69, 67, 67). At [120.00] to back, Andersson Hed is definitely worth chancing in the hope that he carries on where he left off at the weekend.

As I've already touched on, the East Course at the Royal Johannesburg and Kensington Golf Club is much longer than what the majority of this field faced last week. It's a par 71 course and measures 7,590 yards - quite a contrast to last week's par 73 course that measured just 6,770 yards. By my wacky (but accurate) workings out, it means that a par four around here is, on average, 60 yards longer than a par four at last week's Africa Open. Useless information I know!

It does mean though that long hitters and accuracy from the tee could be the key to finding the winner this week as there are a number of par fours to contend with that measure 500 yards plus, as well as a par three that measures more than 250 yards.

Louis Oosthuizen ([34.0]) and Pelle Edberg ([60.0]) fall into the long hitters category and have shown enough form already this season to suggest they can go well here, whilst a player who has a high percentage for finding fairways is Tyrone Van Aswegen. He finished tied fourth around this course last year suggesting this relatively unknown player primes his game for this tournament. At around [20.0] to back in the Top 10 Finish market he is definitely one to keep an eye on.

Recommended Bets

0.5 pt win Michael Lorenzo-Vera @ [100.00] in Winner market
0.5 pt win Fredrik Andersson Hed @ [120.00] in Winner market
1 pt win Louis Oosthuizen @ [34.0] in Winner market
1 pt win Pelle Edberg @ [60.0] in Winner market
1 pt win Tyrone Van Aswegen @ [20.0] in Top 10 Finish market

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