Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 October 2011 / 1

Under-rated Englishman should be in his element at Valderrama, says Paul Krishnamurty, who advises taking the three figure odds while you can

Rather than the usual batch of selections, this week's column is all about one man. David Horsey is arguably the most under-rated player on the European Tour, and odds of [100.0] are frankly an insult to an excellent campaign, and his chance on a course that will surely suit.

Various solid arguments can be made for backing Horsey. Firstly, two wins from his last 39 European Tour point to a conversion ratio that completely belies triple-figure odds. Note also that he won twice in his last six months on the Challenge Tour in 2008, making the overall return four wins from his last 92 starts.

Then there's some solid recent form. Eleventh place at last week's Castello Masters was decent, even if a country mile behind runaway winner Sergio Garcia. He was also sixth in last month's European Masters, and played a blinder against many bigger names during the Vivendi Cup.

Next, there's the specific nature of this week's test. Valderrama has been part of the European Tour schedule for years, so we should know what to expect. Length offers little advantage, but accuracy is absolutely essential around this rather brutal track, which must bode well as nobody in this line-up has been more accurate off the tee than Horsey over the last three months. Most famously, Valderrama is home to some of the slickest, trickiest greens in world golf. Again, this should be ideal as Horsey is top amongst this field for putting average over the 2011 season, and second for putts per round.

Finally, while there are some obvious candidates, the opposition is hardly terrifying. Sergio Garcia has clearly found his form again, but last week's heroics came on his home course. Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell bring genuine world-class to proceedings, but have been well below their best all summer. Below that leading trio, the rest are the same Euro Tour opponents amongst whom Horsey has been perfectly competitive all season, including many non-winners.

The staking plan is to back Horsey for three units at [100.0], then place two lay orders at [15.0] and [3.0]. If he just hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed seven units profit.

Recommended Bets
David Horsey 3u @ [100.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -29.5u

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. Anonymous | 28 October 2011

   oops. with that one paul.

:

:

:

?

: