Find Me a 100 Winner: Valderrama failures can bounce back in China

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 November 2011 /

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Colsaerts - one of the most improved players around

"So long as he remains around these big odds, Colsaerts is well worth following in the weeks ahead."

This week's event in China is a tough one for punters but Paul Krishnamurty has identified a couple of big hitters who could be ready to return to winning ways.

Due to the nature of this week's WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy, finding a plausible candidate at triple-figure odds is no mean feat. Seventy-eight competitors is around half the size of a 'normal' field and at least a third look completely out of their depth. In fact, it's hard to envisage any more than a dozen of these outsiders ever seriously challenging for a tournament of this magnitude, although thanks to a typical market over-reaction after last week, I've found a couple of classy candidates who should be suited by conditions. Moreover, the flipside of a less competitive line-up is that it may not take quite so much to hit the lay targets.

Francesco Molinari proved last year that you don't have to be a big-hitter to win at Sheshan International GC, but it certainly helps. Bombers tend to maximise scoring opportunities on the four par-fives, and they should appreciate the fact that the rough is reportedly less penal than last year. Phil Mickelson has won two of the last four renewals, which points towards backing players known for their attacking style.

Those conditions are overwhelmingly more favourable to the likes of Alvaro Quiros and Nicolas Colsaerts than the tight layout of Valderrama, where both came a cropper last week. Two of the biggest hitters on the European Tour, but certainly not known for their accuracy, it is doubtful either man will achieve much at Valderrama, but Sheshan should be a different story. Indeed, it has already been so for Quiros, who made the top-ten in both 2008 and 2009. This four-time winner has been quiet in recent months, often because courses haven't suited his game, but Alvaro had looked in decent nick on his previous outing in Portugal, making the top-20 and ranking ninth for greens in regulation.

Colsaerts will be making his Sheshan debut, but there's no reason to think he can't go well, especially given that he broke his European Tour duck in the China Open on his last visit to the country. The Belgian has looked one of the most improved players around this season, and bound to win again soon. So long as he remains around these big odds, Colsaerts is well worth following in the weeks ahead.

Both men start the week at odds of https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104244823&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013 [110.0]. The plan is to place a couple of lay orders on each at [15.0] and [3.0]. By hitting the first target, we'll double our money.

Place order to lay 10u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -32.5u

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