Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 June 2008 /

Looking for a big-priced winner in the US Open betting? Then look no further, Paul Krishnamurty has pulled out four potential champions, all trading at [130.0] or more

Of all the majors, the US Open has been the one in recent years most likely to produce a big-priced winner. All three winners since 2005 - Michael Campbell, Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera - started at over [100.0] and this time around at Torrey Pines there are plenty of capable candidates in that price range.

As its a major, I'm picking out four bets in three figures. Without doubt, my favourite selection is a player I've had in mind for this for some time, Paul Casey. Available at [150.0], Casey seems to have alienated punters with some dismal final day performances in majors. At the Masters in April, he started Sunday amongst a handful of market leaders only to throw in a dire last day. A similar thing happened in last year's US Open at Oakmont, where Casey looked a serious challenger for the first three days.

There's two ways of looking at this. Either he is a bottler, incapable of holding it together in the most high-pressure scenarios - not an argument that convinces me at all as he's looked fine when in contention on the European Tour. Or, more plausibly, that he has the game to win at US major venues and its just a matter of learning from experience. Golf is all about getting yourself into contention regularly. The more chances you have to win, the better accustomed you become to pressure. Casey is ready to make the jump in my view.

Torrey Pines is huge-hitting, musclebound Casey's kind of golf course. Though the US Open always places a massive premium on accuracy, I can't see a short-hitter winning. Its simply too much of a disadvantage to be consistently playing longer irons into small, hard and fast greens. And Casey's fellow Englishman Lee Westwood is one player who will have no worries on that score.

Early in his career, Westwood was widely tipped as being the Brit most likely to break our long miserable spell in this major. In an event that usually penalises the inexperienced, Westwood made the top-20 on three of his first four attempts, including seventh in 1998 and fifth in 2000. Seeing as Lee has enjoyed by far his most consistent year since winning the 2000 Order of Merit, [130.0] represents decent value that he will at last fulfil that promise.

Another outsider I've had in mind for some time in this event is Brandt Snedeker, in fact ever since he finished third at Torrey Pines on one of his first ever PGA Tour starts. The thing I really like about Snedeker is that, even if there are more 'talented' youngsters around, he seems to play hard golf courses really well. Twenty-third on his US Open debut was a decent effort in what was a highly impressive rookie year. I had been concerned that, after breaking down in tears at Augusta having blown a serious winning chance on the final day, Snedeker might still carry some negative effects. But he played well over the weekend for the first three rounds, and looks well worth a crack now at [190.0].

And finally, though its probably too soon for him to win a major, Camilo Villegas remains an outstanding prospect and worth a small punt at 170.0. The young Colombian has the length off the tee, the quality in his irons and the touch around the greens to prosper at Torrey Pines, or indeed any major venue. He still shows all the signs of inexperience, throwing away shots with silly errors, but he's another who seems to thrive on tough golf courses.

Villegas made the cut on both his US Open tries to date, with last year's 26th a marked improvement. Its only been in recent weeks that he's begun to recapture his excellent form from the tail-end of the 2007 season, with third on his penultimate start a welcome boost. I'm adamant that one day this guy will win a major, and with all that potential he must be one of the likelier outsiders on a course that will require a touch of class.

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