Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 January 2008 /

Target course will suit lanky Swede meaning three figures is a big price even with Tiger in the field, according to Paul Krishnamurty

The most pressing question of the week is undoubtedly whether Tiger Woods can be beaten in Dubai. Trading at just [2.06], Tiger is quite possibly the shortest opening price he's ever been for a European or PGA Tour event. And after his sixth win in seven tournaments, the latest an eight-shot rout, its hard to make a solid case against him. However by the nature of golf and the law of averages, he will lose somewhere soon, and this is exactly the type of tournament he is more vulnerable in.

My theory over the years has generally been that the less demanding the golf course, the greater likelihood that Woods could be beaten by a low scoring opponent. This week's Emirates course is a vastly easier proposition compared to his other recent winning venues, with low scoring expected from most of the field. No player, no matter how great, can ever be considered a certainty on such a target golf course, where a wide range of alternative contenders are also capable of shooting extremely low scores. Furthermore while he has never finished below fifth place in four visits to the UAE venue, he has won 'only' one of the four. That's a significantly inferior record, for instance, to Tiger's history at last week's course Torrey Pines.

And because Woods is such short odds, there are numerous characters in the three-figure price range who wouldn't normally trade this high. Previous winner of this event Richard Green, and Abu Dhabi victor Martin Kaymer both took the eye at those odds but the pick of the bunch for me is Robert Karlsson. The lanky Swedish Ryder Cup star has never been the most consistent golfer in the world, but on his day he is a birdie machine. Over many years in Europe, Karlsson has tended to reserve his very best for wide-open, low-scoring courses like this where he can attack. Indeed he's made the top-10 three times previously at the Emirates.

Seven times a European Tour winner in the past, Karlsson has surely paid off those who have backed him over the long-term at big prices. Surprisingly though the latest was as long as 18 months ago, the second of two 2006 victories that led to a career-best fourth in the Order of Merit. Given his decent career win ratio, Karlsson is probably due to win again soon, and this week's conditions represent one of the better chances.

The only downside is that he had disappointing weekend in Qatar, having looked a strong contender coming in on the back of four consecutive top-11 finishes. Considering that previous form, and the massive odds of [100.0], it must be worth putting down that bad week down to a one-off.

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